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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?

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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Apr 4

58°F or higher 84%

56-57°F 6.3%

54-55°F 4.2%

52-53°F 2.0%

Polymarket

$14,580 Vol.

58°F or higher 84%

56-57°F 6.3%

54-55°F 4.2%

52-53°F 2.0%

Polymarket

$14,580 Vol.

39°F or below

$1,224 Vol.

<1%

40-41°F

$1,326 Vol.

<1%

42-43°F

$969 Vol.

<1%

44-45°F

$1,168 Vol.

<1%

46-47°F

$1,121 Vol.

<1%

48-49°F

$913 Vol.

1%

50-51°F

$1,031 Vol.

1%

52-53°F

$1,509 Vol.

2%

54-55°F

$1,759 Vol.

4%

56-57°F

$1,191 Vol.

6%

58°F or higher

$2,370 Vol.

84%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and consensus from GFS and ECMWF models project a high temperature near 58°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on April 3, fueling the market's 83.5% implied probability for 58°F or higher—well above the 54°F climatological normal. This positioning stems from the latest 00z model runs on April 1, which depict a departing low-pressure system allowing southwesterly flow aloft to advect warmer air into the region following current showers and a chilly start around 38°F. Partial cloud cover and lingering precipitation pose minor risks of capping highs in the mid-50s, explaining thin support for 56-57°F (6.3%), but trader consensus reflects high confidence in the mild upper-air pattern. Watch midday NWS updates and 12z model refreshes for potential refinements ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,580
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and consensus from GFS and ECMWF models project a high temperature near 58°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport on April 3, fueling the market's 83.5% implied probability for 58°F or higher—well above the 54°F climatological normal. This positioning stems from the latest 00z model runs on April 1, which depict a departing low-pressure system allowing southwesterly flow aloft to advect warmer air into the region following current showers and a chilly start around 38°F. Partial cloud cover and lingering precipitation pose minor risks of capping highs in the mid-50s, explaining thin support for 56-57°F (6.3%), but trader consensus reflects high confidence in the mild upper-air pattern. Watch midday NWS updates and 12z model refreshes for potential refinements ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,580
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "58°F or higher" at 84%, followed by "56-57°F" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" has generated $14.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" is "58°F or higher" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "56-57°F" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.