Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 7°C in Ankara on March 30, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) showing peak readings at this level amid persistent light drizzle and extensive cloud cover. A chilly low-pressure system over central Turkey has suppressed daytime heating, with current temperatures hovering around 6°C late in the day—well below March climatological highs of 11-12°C. Forecast models from MGM and international sources like ECMWF align on subdued maxima due to overcast skies and cool northerly flow. Realistic challenges would require abrupt clearing for solar warming, but sinking evening air masses and ongoing showers make higher outcomes improbable as resolution nears with final MGM station reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on March 30?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 30?
7°C 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$138,221 Vol.
$138,221 Vol.
-1°C or below
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
Yes
8°C
No
9°C or higher
No
7°C 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$138,221 Vol.
$138,221 Vol.
-1°C or below
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
Yes
8°C
No
9°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 7°C in Ankara on March 30, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) showing peak readings at this level amid persistent light drizzle and extensive cloud cover. A chilly low-pressure system over central Turkey has suppressed daytime heating, with current temperatures hovering around 6°C late in the day—well below March climatological highs of 11-12°C. Forecast models from MGM and international sources like ECMWF align on subdued maxima due to overcast skies and cool northerly flow. Realistic challenges would require abrupt clearing for solar warming, but sinking evening air masses and ongoing showers make higher outcomes improbable as resolution nears with final MGM station reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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