Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C or higher (87.5% implied probability) for Ankara's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)'s latest 5-day forecast projecting a 15°C peak amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS ensemble model consensus showing a dominant high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia, promoting clear skies, solar heating, and mild spring-like temperatures above seasonal early-April averages of 15-16°C. Recent 24-hour model updates have strengthened this signal, with observed highs of 16-18°C over the past week reflecting the ongoing ridge pattern. Lower outcomes like 11°C (10%) account for minor cloud cover risks or brief cold air intrusions, though short-range forecast uncertainty remains low; watch MGM's daily refresh and noon ECMWF runs for potential tweaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 4?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 4?
12°C or higher 88%
11°C 9%
10°C 4.8%
9°C 2.1%
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
5%
11°C
9%
12°C or higher
88%
12°C or higher 88%
11°C 9%
10°C 4.8%
9°C 2.1%
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
5%
11°C
9%
12°C or higher
88%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C or higher (87.5% implied probability) for Ankara's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM)'s latest 5-day forecast projecting a 15°C peak amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS ensemble model consensus showing a dominant high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia, promoting clear skies, solar heating, and mild spring-like temperatures above seasonal early-April averages of 15-16°C. Recent 24-hour model updates have strengthened this signal, with observed highs of 16-18°C over the past week reflecting the ongoing ridge pattern. Lower outcomes like 11°C (10%) account for minor cloud cover risks or brief cold air intrusions, though short-range forecast uncertainty remains low; watch MGM's daily refresh and noon ECMWF runs for potential tweaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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