Strong trader consensus for no hantavirus outbreak by June 30, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability on No, arises from the limited scope of the recent Andes virus cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship. As of mid-May 2026, CDC and WHO reports confirm roughly 10 cases and three deaths worldwide from this exposure, with no evidence of sustained community transmission or case surges in the United States. Official surveillance shows zero active domestic infections and only 41 individuals under monitoring across states, consistent with the virus’s typical rodent-driven pattern and rare person-to-person spread. This aligns with historical U.S. data of sporadic, low-incidence hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases. While new exposures or model revisions could alter trajectories before resolution, current epidemiological indicators point to contained risk rather than an escalating outbreak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
$35,838 Vol.
$35,838 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$35,838 Vol.
$35,838 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus for no hantavirus outbreak by June 30, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability on No, arises from the limited scope of the recent Andes virus cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship. As of mid-May 2026, CDC and WHO reports confirm roughly 10 cases and three deaths worldwide from this exposure, with no evidence of sustained community transmission or case surges in the United States. Official surveillance shows zero active domestic infections and only 41 individuals under monitoring across states, consistent with the virus’s typical rodent-driven pattern and rare person-to-person spread. This aligns with historical U.S. data of sporadic, low-incidence hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases. While new exposures or model revisions could alter trajectories before resolution, current epidemiological indicators point to contained risk rather than an escalating outbreak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$35,838End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus for no hantavirus outbreak by June 30, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability on No, arises from the limited scope of the recent Andes virus cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship. As of mid-May 2026, CDC and WHO reports confirm roughly 10 cases and three deaths worldwide from this exposure, with no evidence of sustained community transmission or case surges in the United States. Official surveillance shows zero active domestic infections and only 41 individuals under monitoring across states, consistent with the virus’s typical rodent-driven pattern and rare person-to-person spread. This aligns with historical U.S. data of sporadic, low-incidence hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases. While new exposures or model revisions could alter trajectories before resolution, current epidemiological indicators point to contained risk rather than an escalating outbreak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,838End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus for no hantavirus outbreak by June 30, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability on No, arises from the limited scope of the recent Andes virus cluster linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship. As of mid-May 2026, CDC and WHO reports confirm roughly 10 cases and three deaths worldwide from this exposure, with no evidence of sustained community transmission or case surges in the United States. Official surveillance shows zero active domestic infections and only 41 individuals under monitoring across states, consistent with the virus’s typical rodent-driven pattern and rare person-to-person spread. This aligns with historical U.S. data of sporadic, low-incidence hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cases. While new exposures or model revisions could alter trajectories before resolution, current epidemiological indicators point to contained risk rather than an escalating outbreak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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