Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and đť•Ź could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?

$731,345 Vol.

50% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip for any length of time between December 26, 2023, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM GMT+2. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with majority of control of the Gaza Strip will be considered the primary governing authority.

If at any point within the time window of this market Hamas is not recognized as the primary governing authority of the Gaza Strip, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume
$731,345
End Date
Jan 31, 2024
Created At
Dec 29, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and đť•Ź could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$731,345 Vol.

Market icon

Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?

50% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip for any length of time between December 26, 2023, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM GMT+2. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with majority of control of the Gaza Strip will be considered the primary governing authority.

If at any point within the time window of this market Hamas is not recognized as the primary governing authority of the Gaza Strip, this market may immediately resolve to "Yes".

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume
$731,345
End Date
Jan 31, 2024
Created At
Dec 29, 2023, 4:37 PM UTC

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Related

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Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?

24%
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Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?

51%
shield

Beware of external links.