Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?

$32,999 Vol.

50% chance

Rules

This market will resolve according to the identical market created on Manifold by Richard Hanania, currently available here: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/hamas-command-center-under-alshifa.

If the aforementioned market is deemed permanently unavailable, or if the resolution is otherwise inaccessible, this market will resolve according to the existing rules: "Israel claims that Hamas has a command center under al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Hamas denies this. This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospital or in its immediate vicinity, in addition to the claims Israel has provided as of November 10, 2023. The market will expire on June 30, 2024. If no evidence emerges by that time, or it is shown that there is no such command center, this market will settle as NO.

Update, November 19, 8:46 AM PST: The term "no evidence" in the original question was meant to be relative, not absolute. This market will resolve YES if there is enough evidence to conclude there was a command center, but not otherwise. If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES based on a totality of the evidence. The evidence will be judged based on a consensus of credible reporting, mainly taken from The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Washington Post. If before the end date it becomes 90% likely there was no command center in my judgment, this market will resolve as NO. If we get to the end of the market and it's not 90% certain in either direction, the market will resolve as NO.

As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations. It does not have to be the main command center of its entire war effort, or necessarily a "headquarters." The command center must have been in use as a command center at some point during the current war or during the events immediately preceding it."
Volume
$32,999
End Date
Jun 30, 2024
Created At
Nov 26, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$32,999 Vol.

Market icon

Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?

50% chance

About

This market will resolve according to the identical market created on Manifold by Richard Hanania, currently available here: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/hamas-command-center-under-alshifa.

If the aforementioned market is deemed permanently unavailable, or if the resolution is otherwise inaccessible, this market will resolve according to the existing rules: "Israel claims that Hamas has a command center under al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Hamas denies this. This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospital or in its immediate vicinity, in addition to the claims Israel has provided as of November 10, 2023. The market will expire on June 30, 2024. If no evidence emerges by that time, or it is shown that there is no such command center, this market will settle as NO.

Update, November 19, 8:46 AM PST: The term "no evidence" in the original question was meant to be relative, not absolute. This market will resolve YES if there is enough evidence to conclude there was a command center, but not otherwise. If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES based on a totality of the evidence. The evidence will be judged based on a consensus of credible reporting, mainly taken from The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Washington Post. If before the end date it becomes 90% likely there was no command center in my judgment, this market will resolve as NO. If we get to the end of the market and it's not 90% certain in either direction, the market will resolve as NO.

As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations. It does not have to be the main command center of its entire war effort, or necessarily a "headquarters." The command center must have been in use as a command center at some point during the current war or during the events immediately preceding it."
Volume
$32,999
End Date
Jun 30, 2024
Created At
Nov 26, 2023, 6:53 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.