Market icon
Sports·Soccer

FIFA World Cup Group I Winner

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

FIFA World Cup Group I Winner

France 71%

Norway 19%

Senegal 9%

BOL/IRQ/SUR 2.3%

Polymarket

$82,624 Vol.

France 71%

Norway 19%

Senegal 9%

BOL/IRQ/SUR 2.3%

Polymarket

$82,624 Vol.

France

$23,906 Vol.

71%

Norway

$8,458 Vol.

19%

Senegal

$10,181 Vol.

9%

BOL/IRQ/SUR

$40,078 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France tops trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to win Group I at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their world No. 1 FIFA ranking, unmatched squad depth featuring Mbappé, Camavinga, and a proven knockout pedigree from recent tournaments. Norway sits at 18.5% as the clear challenger, powered by Haaland and Ødegaard's club form and a potent attack despite limited major tournament experience. Senegal's 9% reflects their CAF strength and talents like Mané and Diallo, but tougher fixtures against Europe’s elite temper expectations. Iraq's recent playoff victory over Bolivia/Suriname to claim the final spot (combined 2.5%) adds little threat, with recent previews affirming France's path to the round of 32 alongside likely Norway. No major injuries or friendlies have shifted sentiment in the past week.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$82,624
End Date
Jun 27, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France tops trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to win Group I at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their world No. 1 FIFA ranking, unmatched squad depth featuring Mbappé, Camavinga, and a proven knockout pedigree from recent tournaments. Norway sits at 18.5% as the clear challenger, powered by Haaland and Ødegaard's club form and a potent attack despite limited major tournament experience. Senegal's 9% reflects their CAF strength and talents like Mané and Diallo, but tougher fixtures against Europe’s elite temper expectations. Iraq's recent playoff victory over Bolivia/Suriname to claim the final spot (combined 2.5%) adds little threat, with recent previews affirming France's path to the round of 32 alongside likely Norway. No major injuries or friendlies have shifted sentiment in the past week.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$82,624
End Date
Jun 27, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

Market icon

Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

48%
Market icon

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

52%
Market icon

Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

70%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FIFA World Cup Group I Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "France" at 71%, followed by "Norway" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FIFA World Cup Group I Winner" has generated $82.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FIFA World Cup Group I Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FIFA World Cup Group I Winner" is "France" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Norway" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FIFA World Cup Group I Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.