February Unemployment Rate - Mexico

Name: February Unemployment Rate - Mexico
Start: 2026-02-27T00:33:32.188Z
End: 2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Unemployment

February Unemployment Rate - Mexico

Mar 27

2.6% 45.7%

≤2.4% 31%

2.5% 22%

2.7% <1%

$23,211 Vol.

Mar 27, 2026

≤2.4%

$12,596 Vol.

31%

2.5%

$1,583 Vol.

22%

2.6%

$2,189 Vol.

46%

2.7%

$1,349 Vol.

2.8%

$809 Vol.

<1%

2.9%

$1,567 Vol.

<1%

≥3.0%

$3,119 Vol.

<1%

2.6% 45.7%

≤2.4% 31%

2.5% 22%

2.7% <1%

$23,211 Vol.

Mar 27, 2026

≤2.4%

$12,596 Vol.

31%

2.5%

$1,583 Vol.

22%

2.6%

$2,189 Vol.

46%

2.7%

$1,349 Vol.

2.8%

$809 Vol.

<1%

2.9%

$1,567 Vol.

<1%

≥3.0%

$3,119 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026. The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/ The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Polymarket traders price a February Mexico unemployment rate of 2.6% at 45.6% implied probability, closely trailed by ≤2.4% (31.0%) and 2.5% (21.5%), reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.6% reading from INEGI—the lowest since mid-2023 amid robust formal job creation of over 110,000 positions announced last week. This positioning stems from resilient economic growth, with Q4 2023 GDP expansion at 3.2% annualized and manufacturing PMI holding above 50, signaling ongoing hiring despite global headwinds. Banxico's recent 50 basis point rate cut to 11% supports a soft landing narrative, though upcoming INEGI release on March 29 could shift sentiment if informal sector data surprises. Consensus economist forecasts cluster near 2.6%, underscoring trader alignment with base rates from prior months.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 10:09 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.6%" at 46%, followed by "≤2.4%" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" has generated $23.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" is "2.6%" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤2.4%" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23.2K traded on “February Unemployment Rate - Mexico,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 46¢ for "2.6%" in the "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 46% chance that "2.6%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 46¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 54¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 27, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico" market has a growing discussion of 5 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "February Unemployment Rate - Mexico." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

February Unemployment Rate - Mexico

February Unemployment Rate - Mexico

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Comments (5)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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