Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's February unemployment rate in a tight range, with ≤2.4% at 40% implied probability leading 2.6% at 37% and 2.5% at 27%, signaling steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.6% rate—down from December's 2.8%—amid robust formal job gains exceeding 700,000 year-over-year. Nearshoring inflows and manufacturing PMI above 50 underpin low unemployment expectations, but competitive pricing reflects uncertainty from potential seasonal adjustments and moderating GDP growth signals. Key differentiators include INEGI's March 22 data release, where surprises in urban unemployment or informal sector shifts could swing outcomes, with historical base rates around 2.5-2.7% in expansions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFebruary Unemployment Rate - Mexico
February Unemployment Rate - Mexico
≤2.4% 40%
2.6% 37.5%
2.5% 27%
2.7% <1%
$22,496 Vol.
$22,496 Vol.
≤2.4%
40%
2.5%
27%
2.6%
38%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
<1%
2.9%
<1%
≥3.0%
<1%
≤2.4% 40%
2.6% 37.5%
2.5% 27%
2.7% <1%
$22,496 Vol.
$22,496 Vol.
≤2.4%
40%
2.5%
27%
2.6%
38%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
<1%
2.9%
<1%
≥3.0%
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mexico's February unemployment rate in a tight range, with ≤2.4% at 40% implied probability leading 2.6% at 37% and 2.5% at 27%, signaling steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.6% rate—down from December's 2.8%—amid robust formal job gains exceeding 700,000 year-over-year. Nearshoring inflows and manufacturing PMI above 50 underpin low unemployment expectations, but competitive pricing reflects uncertainty from potential seasonal adjustments and moderating GDP growth signals. Key differentiators include INEGI's March 22 data release, where surprises in urban unemployment or informal sector shifts could swing outcomes, with historical base rates around 2.5-2.7% in expansions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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