Name: DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?
Start: 2023-05-24T16:43:00Z
End: 2023-05-24T00:00:00Z

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This is a market group over which terms Ron DeSantis will mention in his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis mentions "Trump" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Only the following phrasings will count as mentions of Trump.
"Trump"
"Donald Trump"
"Donald J. Trump"
"Donald John Trump"
"Donald"
"Don"
"Donnie"
"DJT"

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis mentions "Joe Biden" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Only the following phrasings will count as mentions of Biden.
"Joe"
"Joseph"
"Biden" (however phrases that don't reference Joe Biden such as Jill Biden or Hunter Biden will NOT count)
“Joe Biden"
"Joseph Biden"

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Joe Biden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis mentions "Russia" or "Putin" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Only the following phrasings will count as mentions of "Russia" or "Putin":

“Russia”
“Russian”
“Putin”

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Russia/Putin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "COVID" and/or "Wuhan" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

COVID/Wuhan

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "Florida" five or more times during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Florida 5 or more times

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "Abortion" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Abortion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "Gun" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "Trans" and/or "Transgender" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Trans/Transgender

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis mentions E. Jean Carroll during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Only the following phrasings will count as a mention of E. Jean Carroll.
"Jean"
"E. Jean Carroll"
"Elizabeth Jean Carroll"
"Carroll"
“Jean Carroll"
"E. Jean"
"Elizabeth Jean"
"Elizabeth" (however phrases that don't reference E. Jean Carroll such as Elizabeth Warren will NOT count)

 Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

E. Jean Carroll

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "Crypto" and/or "Cryptocurrency" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Crypto

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ron DeSantis says "A.I." and/or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Twitter Space scheduled for 6 PM ET on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market - mere references will not count.

The resolution source is live Twitter Space or recordings of it. In case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

If this event is cancelled or delayed beyond May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Virginia in 2026?

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?

Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks on Trump accounts in Washington on January 28, 2026 (see: https://www.forth.news/whpool/CXURpu8PNRRFiEpe8Er62).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on January 28, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the speech about Trump accounts on January 28th (https://www.forth.news/whpool/CXURpu8PNRRFiEpe8Er62). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" 6+ times during remarks on January 28?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Central Casting" this week? (February 1)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the State of Florida enacts a law that modifies the boundaries of federal Congressional Districts in Florida by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Committee votes, hearings, or reports, or other intermediate steps prior to enactment will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Subsequent litigation or challenges to an enacted law will also have no impact on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Florida; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Florida enact a redistricting law by March 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Truth Social" in January?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Tesla say "Full Self-Driving" or "FSD" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively.  Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.

Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.

AI-generated images or video will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Sun meets with Elon Musk by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Justin Sun and Elon Musk are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Trump
$69,156 Vol.
No

Joe Biden
$500 Vol.
Yes

Russia/Putin
$756 Vol.
No

Trans/Transgender
$203 Vol.
No

Gun
$267 Vol.
No

Abortion
$0 Vol.
No

E. Jean Carroll
$0 Vol.
No

COVID/Wuhan
$0 Vol.
Yes

Florida 5 or more times
$509 Vol.
Yes

Crypto
$230 Vol.
No

AI
$700 Vol.
No

Market Context

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Rules

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Market Context

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

About

Related

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Trump$69,156 Vol.No

Joe Biden$500 Vol.Yes

Russia/Putin$756 Vol.No

Trans/Transgender$203 Vol.No

Gun$267 Vol.No

Abortion$0 Vol.No

E. Jean Carroll$0 Vol.No

COVID/Wuhan$0 Vol.Yes

Florida 5 or more times$509 Vol.Yes

Crypto$230 Vol.No

AI$700 Vol.No

Market Context

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Rules

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

Market Context

DeSantis' Presidential Twitter Space: Will he mention?

About

Related

Trump
$69,156 Vol.
No

Joe Biden
$500 Vol.
Yes

Russia/Putin
$756 Vol.
No

Trans/Transgender
$203 Vol.
No

Gun
$267 Vol.
No

Abortion
$0 Vol.
No

E. Jean Carroll
$0 Vol.
No

COVID/Wuhan
$0 Vol.
Yes

Florida 5 or more times
$509 Vol.
Yes

Crypto
$230 Vol.
No

AI
$700 Vol.
No