Name: Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory
Start: 2025-08-18T16:27:32.375549Z
End: 2025-10-19T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

A second-round (runoff) vote for the Bolivia Presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 19, 2025 

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2025 Bolivian Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the second round of the Bolivian Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve solely based on the first official vote count released by the Bolivian Government, specifically the Plurinational Electoral Body (Órgano Electoral Plurinacional, OEP) (https://www.oep.org.bo/).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.


Paz by 20%+

Paz by 10–15%

Paz by 0–5%

Tuto by 5–10%

Tuto by 15–20%

Tuto by 20%+

Other

Paz by 15–20%

Tuto by 0–5%

Paz by 5–10%

Tuto by 10–15%

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Honduran Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Honduran Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Honduran Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the number of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 50,000 and 60,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will Abelardo de la Espriella  win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that finishes in second place in this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

The first round of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election is scheduled for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage in the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, calculated as the total number of votes received (“votos recibidos”) divided by the total electorate (“electorado”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Costa Rica Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 64% and 66%?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea on December 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Guinean government, including the Guinean Supreme Court (Cour suprême), the Guinean Constitutional Court (Cour Constitutionnelle), or the newly established Directorate General of Elections (Direction générale des élections or DGE). If these listed sources disagree, they will be prioritized in the following order: Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, Directorate General of Elections.

Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?

Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Avanza País – Partido de Integración Social (AvP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Uganda on January 15, 2026. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate that wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ugandan Government, specifically the Ugandan Electoral Commission (https://www.ec.or.ug/).

Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election?

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the November 30 Honduran presidential election are annulled by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The results of this election will be considered annulled if they are formally declared invalid by the Honduras Tribunal de Justicia Electoral or another official body of the government of Honduras with the legal jurisdiction to do so.

If an official body of the government of Honduras with legal jurisdiction to rule on this matter has formally accepted a case seeking annulment of this election and no ruling has been issued by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open until a ruling is publicly announced.

This market will resolve based on the first qualifying ruling issued that annuls this election. Subsequent appeals or challenges will not be considered.

The resolution sources will be official information from the government of Honduras and a consensus of credible reporting.

Honduras presidential election annulled by February 28?

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Central African Republic on December 28, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (Autorité nationale des élections or ANE on https://www.ane-rca.org/). 

If the election outcome is ambiguous and the information from the specified resolution source is not definitive, this market will resolve to the candidate who takes office the following term.

Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic presidential election?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The two candidates with the greatest number of votes in the first round will advance to the second round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidates that qualify for the second round of this election. 

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly in this election.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the second-highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. 

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate.

If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Benin on January 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Benin National Assembly (Assemblée nationale) in this election.

If voting in the Benin parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Benin National Assembly. If a senate is added to the Benin parliament, this market will resolve according to the number of seats won in the National Assembly, excluding the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Benin government, specifically the constitutional court of Benin (Cour constitutionnelle du Bénin) (https://courconstitutionnelle.bj/fr).

Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.  

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".  

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. 

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

Will the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Maduro out
- US x Venezuela military engagement

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Maduro+Parlay.pdf

Venezuela Parlay

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between December 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count as a military engagement; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify as a military engagement.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify as a military engagement regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify as a military engagement (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

2. President Nicolás Maduro is NOT removed from power within the first 30 days after such an engagement ends, with no subsequent engagement occurring.

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

A military engagement which occurs will be considered to have ended once no qualifying incidents occur for 24 consecutive hours following the initial engagement. The relevant thirty day period will begin on the calendar day following this 24 hours. If multiple military engagements occur, the 30-day period will be counted from the first day following the ending of the most recent engagement.

If Maduro is removed from power prior to a qualifying military engagement occurring this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Note: If a qualifying military engagement occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either Maduro is removed from power or a thirty day period has passed with no subsequent military engagements occurring. 

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Paz by 20%+
$183,979 Vol.
No

Paz by 15–20%
$209,555 Vol.
No

Paz by 10–15%
$818,336 Vol.
No

Paz by 5–10%
$859,520 Vol.
Yes

Paz by 0–5%
$351,206 Vol.
No

Tuto by 0–5%
$133,848 Vol.
No

Tuto by 5–10%
$106,891 Vol.
No

Tuto by 10–15%
$131,956 Vol.
No

Tuto by 15–20%
$99,456 Vol.
No

Tuto by 20%+
$192,033 Vol.
No

Other
$51,981 Vol.
No

Market Context

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Rules

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Market Context

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

About

Related

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Paz by 20%+$183,979 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Paz by 15–20%$209,555 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Paz by 10–15%$818,336 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Paz by 5–10%$859,520 Vol.Yescircle check

Paz by 0–5%$351,206 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tuto by 0–5%$133,848 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tuto by 5–10%$106,891 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tuto by 10–15%$131,956 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tuto by 15–20%$99,456 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tuto by 20%+$192,033 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other$51,981 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Rules

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Market Context

Bolivia Presidential Election Margin of Victory

About

Related

Paz by 20%+
$183,979 Vol.
No

Paz by 15–20%
$209,555 Vol.
No

Paz by 10–15%
$818,336 Vol.
No

Paz by 5–10%
$859,520 Vol.
Yes

Paz by 0–5%
$351,206 Vol.
No

Tuto by 0–5%
$133,848 Vol.
No

Tuto by 5–10%
$106,891 Vol.
No

Tuto by 10–15%
$131,956 Vol.
No

Tuto by 15–20%
$99,456 Vol.
No

Tuto by 20%+
$192,033 Vol.
No

Other
$51,981 Vol.
No