Scottie Scheffler tops trader consensus at 14.5% implied probability for the Augusta National Invitational winner, buoyed by two prior green jackets (2022, 2024) and unmatched course history, yet his recent Houston Open withdrawal for family reasons—amid a form slump—caps his dominance. Defending champion Rory McIlroy sits at 6.5% following a back injury recovery, while Bryson DeChambeau (7.5%) and Jon Rahm (7.4%) surge on strong LIV Golf results and recent Augusta improvements. A stacked field, with 11 players exceeding 1.7 strokes gained tee-to-green over the last three months, underscores the tight race, as precision irons, par-5 scoring, and scrambling edge define outcomes on Augusta's demanding layout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedScottie Scheffler 15%
Bryson Dechambeau 8%
Jon Rahm 7.4%
Rory McIlroy 7%
$61,321,663 Vol.
$61,321,663 Vol.
Scottie Scheffler
15%
Bryson Dechambeau
8%
Jon Rahm
7%
Rory McIlroy
7%
Ludvig Aberg
5%
Matt Fitzpatrick
5%
Xander Schauffele
5%
Cameron Young
4%
Collin Morikawa
4%
Justin Rose
3%
Tommy Fleetwood
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
3%
Jordan Spieth
2%
Akshay Bhatia
2%
Brooks Koepka
2%
Patrick Reed
2%
Sepp Straka
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Justin Thomas
2%
Viktor Hovland
1%
Shane Lowry
1%
Robert MacIntyre
1%
Russell Henley
1%
Adam Scott
1%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Tyrrell Hatton
1%
Jason Day
1%
Patrick Cantlay
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Maverick McNealy
1%
Sungjae Im
1%
Max Homa
1%
Brian Harman
1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Corey Conners
1%
Wyndham Clark
1%
Will Zalatoris
1%
Keegan Bradley
<1%
Tiger Woods
<1%
Tony Finau
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Sergio Garcia
<1%
Thomas Detry
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Billy Horschel
<1%
Phil Mickelson
<1%
Charl Schwartzel
<1%
Aaron Rai
<1%
Bubba Watson
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Danny Willett
<1%
Byeong Hun An
<1%
Fred Couples
<1%
Zach Johnson
<1%
Davis Thompson
<1%
Denny McCarthy
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Scottie Scheffler 15%
Bryson Dechambeau 8%
Jon Rahm 7.4%
Rory McIlroy 7%
$61,321,663 Vol.
$61,321,663 Vol.
Scottie Scheffler
15%
Bryson Dechambeau
8%
Jon Rahm
7%
Rory McIlroy
7%
Ludvig Aberg
5%
Matt Fitzpatrick
5%
Xander Schauffele
5%
Cameron Young
4%
Collin Morikawa
4%
Justin Rose
3%
Tommy Fleetwood
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
3%
Jordan Spieth
2%
Akshay Bhatia
2%
Brooks Koepka
2%
Patrick Reed
2%
Sepp Straka
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Justin Thomas
2%
Viktor Hovland
1%
Shane Lowry
1%
Robert MacIntyre
1%
Russell Henley
1%
Adam Scott
1%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Tyrrell Hatton
1%
Jason Day
1%
Patrick Cantlay
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Maverick McNealy
1%
Sungjae Im
1%
Max Homa
1%
Brian Harman
1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Corey Conners
1%
Wyndham Clark
1%
Will Zalatoris
1%
Keegan Bradley
<1%
Tiger Woods
<1%
Tony Finau
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Sergio Garcia
<1%
Thomas Detry
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Billy Horschel
<1%
Phil Mickelson
<1%
Charl Schwartzel
<1%
Aaron Rai
<1%
Bubba Watson
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Danny Willett
<1%
Byeong Hun An
<1%
Fred Couples
<1%
Zach Johnson
<1%
Davis Thompson
<1%
Denny McCarthy
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.
If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2025, 11:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.
If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Scottie Scheffler tops trader consensus at 14.5% implied probability for the Augusta National Invitational winner, buoyed by two prior green jackets (2022, 2024) and unmatched course history, yet his recent Houston Open withdrawal for family reasons—amid a form slump—caps his dominance. Defending champion Rory McIlroy sits at 6.5% following a back injury recovery, while Bryson DeChambeau (7.5%) and Jon Rahm (7.4%) surge on strong LIV Golf results and recent Augusta improvements. A stacked field, with 11 players exceeding 1.7 strokes gained tee-to-green over the last three months, underscores the tight race, as precision irons, par-5 scoring, and scrambling edge define outcomes on Augusta's demanding layout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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