Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62% implied probability to Apple (AAPL) closing above $225 by March 31, propelled by the stock's position at $223 amid a tech sector rebound fueled by cooling inflation data and persistent AI enthusiasm. Recent Q4 earnings beat expectations with 2% revenue growth to $119.6 billion, bolstered by record services at $25 billion, though iPhone sales dipped 1% YoY due to China softness. Market dynamics hinge on Nasdaq momentum, with AAPL's 15x forward P/E premium to peers vulnerable to March 20 FOMC signals on rate cuts. Post-resolution Q1 earnings loom April 25, but end-March resolution pivots on broader equity flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$267,279 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
98%
$230
94%
$240
81%
$250
48%
$260
22%
$270
9%
$280
14%
$290
1%
$300
1%
$310
1%
$320
1%
$330
1%
$267,279 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
98%
$230
94%
$240
81%
$250
48%
$260
22%
$270
9%
$280
14%
$290
1%
$300
1%
$310
1%
$320
1%
$330
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62% implied probability to Apple (AAPL) closing above $225 by March 31, propelled by the stock's position at $223 amid a tech sector rebound fueled by cooling inflation data and persistent AI enthusiasm. Recent Q4 earnings beat expectations with 2% revenue growth to $119.6 billion, bolstered by record services at $25 billion, though iPhone sales dipped 1% YoY due to China softness. Market dynamics hinge on Nasdaq momentum, with AAPL's 15x forward P/E premium to peers vulnerable to March 20 FOMC signals on rate cuts. Post-resolution Q1 earnings loom April 25, but end-March resolution pivots on broader equity flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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