Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook holding global growth steady at 2.9% amid escalating G20 trade barriers and energy price shocks that have prompted downward revisions from firms like Allianz (2.6%) and the Conference Board (2.8%). Persistent core inflation—now forecasted higher at 4.0% for G20 economies—dampens monetary easing prospects, offsetting AI-fueled U.S. productivity gains and robust emerging market contributions from China and India. Divergent regional trajectories, with eurozone stagnation and U.S. resilience via tech investment, underpin the clustering around low-3% outcomes, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook could shift sentiment with its 3.3% baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
≤2.9% 34%
3.3% 19.6%
3.1% 16.5%
3.4% 15.4%
$14,462 Vol.
$14,462 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
52%
3.0%
23%
3.1%
17%
3.2%
25%
3.3%
20%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.6%
13%
3.7%+
15%
≤2.9% 34%
3.3% 19.6%
3.1% 16.5%
3.4% 15.4%
$14,462 Vol.
$14,462 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,348 Vol.
52%
3.0%
$293 Vol.
23%
3.1%
$304 Vol.
17%
3.2%
$1,481 Vol.
25%
3.3%
$1,760 Vol.
20%
3.4%
$3,331 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$2,899 Vol.
7%
3.6%
$410 Vol.
13%
3.7%+
$635 Vol.
15%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook holding global growth steady at 2.9% amid escalating G20 trade barriers and energy price shocks that have prompted downward revisions from firms like Allianz (2.6%) and the Conference Board (2.8%). Persistent core inflation—now forecasted higher at 4.0% for G20 economies—dampens monetary easing prospects, offsetting AI-fueled U.S. productivity gains and robust emerging market contributions from China and India. Divergent regional trajectories, with eurozone stagnation and U.S. resilience via tech investment, underpin the clustering around low-3% outcomes, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook could shift sentiment with its 3.3% baseline.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$14,462End Date
Jan 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook holding global growth steady at 2.9% amid escalating G20 trade barriers and energy price shocks that have prompted downward revisions from firms like Allianz (2.6%) and the Conference Board (2.8%). Persistent core inflation—now forecasted higher at 4.0% for G20 economies—dampens monetary easing prospects, offsetting AI-fueled U.S. productivity gains and robust emerging market contributions from China and India. Divergent regional trajectories, with eurozone stagnation and U.S. resilience via tech investment, underpin the clustering around low-3% outcomes, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook could shift sentiment with its 3.3% baseline.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$14,462End Date
Jan 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook holding global growth steady at 2.9% amid escalating G20 trade barriers and energy price shocks that have prompted downward revisions from firms like Allianz (2.6%) and the Conference Board (2.8%). Persistent core inflation—now forecasted higher at 4.0% for G20 economies—dampens monetary easing prospects, offsetting AI-fueled U.S. productivity gains and robust emerging market contributions from China and India. Divergent regional trajectories, with eurozone stagnation and U.S. resilience via tech investment, underpin the clustering around low-3% outcomes, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook could shift sentiment with its 3.3% baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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