Recent generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 5-6 points—Nate Silver at D+5.5 and RealClearPolling at D+6.0 as of March 31—aligning trader consensus with elevated odds for Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-6% (29.5%) and 8-10% (26.0%). This positioning stems from a slight widening of the Democratic lead over the past week, driven by polls like Quinnipiac (D+11) and Emerson (D+8), amid President Trump's net approval hitting a second-term low of -16.7 and negative sentiment on foreign policy engagements. "Other" leads at 45.5% due to seven months until the November 3 midterms, historical volatility in midterm generic ballots for the incumbent party, and potential shifts from economic data or primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDemocrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Republicans 6%+ 13.9%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$27,856 Vol.
$27,856 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
9%
Democrats 14-16%
9%
Democrats 12-14%
9%
Democrats 10-12%
15%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
23%
Democrats 4-6%
28%
Democrats 2-4%
21%
Democrats 0-2%
9%
Republicans 0-2%
20%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
14%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Republicans 6%+ 13.9%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$27,856 Vol.
$27,856 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$0 Vol.
9%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Vol.
9%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Vol.
9%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Vol.
15%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Vol.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Vol.
23%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Vol.
28%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 Vol.
21%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Vol.
9%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Vol.
20%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,691 Vol.
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Vol.
4%
Republicans 6%+
$626 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 5-6 points—Nate Silver at D+5.5 and RealClearPolling at D+6.0 as of March 31—aligning trader consensus with elevated odds for Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-6% (29.5%) and 8-10% (26.0%). This positioning stems from a slight widening of the Democratic lead over the past week, driven by polls like Quinnipiac (D+11) and Emerson (D+8), amid President Trump's net approval hitting a second-term low of -16.7 and negative sentiment on foreign policy engagements. "Other" leads at 45.5% due to seven months until the November 3 midterms, historical volatility in midterm generic ballots for the incumbent party, and potential shifts from economic data or primaries.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$27,856End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 5-6 points—Nate Silver at D+5.5 and RealClearPolling at D+6.0 as of March 31—aligning trader consensus with elevated odds for Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-6% (29.5%) and 8-10% (26.0%). This positioning stems from a slight widening of the Democratic lead over the past week, driven by polls like Quinnipiac (D+11) and Emerson (D+8), amid President Trump's net approval hitting a second-term low of -16.7 and negative sentiment on foreign policy engagements. "Other" leads at 45.5% due to seven months until the November 3 midterms, historical volatility in midterm generic ballots for the incumbent party, and potential shifts from economic data or primaries.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$27,856End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling averages place Democrats ahead of Republicans by 5-6 points—Nate Silver at D+5.5 and RealClearPolling at D+6.0 as of March 31—aligning trader consensus with elevated odds for Democratic House popular vote margins of 4-6% (29.5%) and 8-10% (26.0%). This positioning stems from a slight widening of the Democratic lead over the past week, driven by polls like Quinnipiac (D+11) and Emerson (D+8), amid President Trump's net approval hitting a second-term low of -16.7 and negative sentiment on foreign policy engagements. "Other" leads at 45.5% due to seven months until the November 3 midterms, historical volatility in midterm generic ballots for the incumbent party, and potential shifts from economic data or primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions