Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability as Euro 2024 champions with a dynamic young core including Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, and Pedri, bolstered by flawless UEFA qualifiers, but France's surge to FIFA's No. 1 ranking yesterday—edging Spain by just 0.92 points amid Kylian Mbappé's form—has closed the gap to 13%, fueling a tightly bunched top five under 12%. The March 31 playoff finals confirmed all elite contenders' spots without incident for leaders like Argentina, Brazil, England, and Portugal, while the group draw separates powerhouses (no Spain-Argentina or France-England before finals), amplifying knockout volatility in the expanded 48-team format and keeping paths open amid uncertain player fitness and Nations League momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 16.1%
France 13.0%
England 11.9%
Argentina 9.3%
$468,507,908 Vol.
$468,507,908 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
13%
England
12%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Japan
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turkiye
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Spain 16.1%
France 13.0%
England 11.9%
Argentina 9.3%
$468,507,908 Vol.
$468,507,908 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
13%
England
12%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Japan
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turkiye
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability as Euro 2024 champions with a dynamic young core including Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, and Pedri, bolstered by flawless UEFA qualifiers, but France's surge to FIFA's No. 1 ranking yesterday—edging Spain by just 0.92 points amid Kylian Mbappé's form—has closed the gap to 13%, fueling a tightly bunched top five under 12%. The March 31 playoff finals confirmed all elite contenders' spots without incident for leaders like Argentina, Brazil, England, and Portugal, while the group draw separates powerhouses (no Spain-Argentina or France-England before finals), amplifying knockout volatility in the expanded 48-team format and keeping paths open amid uncertain player fitness and Nations League momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions