Trader consensus prices France and Spain as slim co-favorites at 16.0% and 15.3% implied probabilities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a tight race underscoring the parity among qualified powerhouses after March playoffs finalized the expanded 48-team field without upsets among elites. Spain's edge stems from their Euro 2024 triumph, Nations League dominance, and breakout stars like Lamine Yamal fueling seamless attacking transitions, while France leverages Kylian Mbappé's goal-scoring prowess and defensive depth despite recent Nations League inconsistencies. England trails at 11.1% amid Southgate-era transitional form, with Argentina and Brazil at 8.6% balancing veteran experience against squad rejuvenation needs; the group draw's structure—shielding top seeds until semifinals—amplifies knockout volatility across neutral North American venues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$858,685,984 Vol.
$858,685,984 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
France 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$858,685,984 Vol.
$858,685,984 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices France and Spain as slim co-favorites at 16.0% and 15.3% implied probabilities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a tight race underscoring the parity among qualified powerhouses after March playoffs finalized the expanded 48-team field without upsets among elites. Spain's edge stems from their Euro 2024 triumph, Nations League dominance, and breakout stars like Lamine Yamal fueling seamless attacking transitions, while France leverages Kylian Mbappé's goal-scoring prowess and defensive depth despite recent Nations League inconsistencies. England trails at 11.1% amid Southgate-era transitional form, with Argentina and Brazil at 8.6% balancing veteran experience against squad rejuvenation needs; the group draw's structure—shielding top seeds until semifinals—amplifies knockout volatility across neutral North American venues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions