Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$425,232,297 Vol.
$425,232,297 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Earn 4%
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$425,232,297 Vol.
$425,232,297 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Earn 4%
Spain
$5,570,753 Vol.
16%
England
$6,545,127 Vol.
13%
France
$4,207,306 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$6,701,979 Vol.
10%
Brazil
$6,394,328 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$8,036,140 Vol.
7%
Germany
$6,714,328 Vol.
5%
Netherlands
$8,960,286 Vol.
3%
Norway
$7,416,550 Vol.
3%
Italy
$7,689,257 Vol.
2%
Belgium
$7,434,199 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$7,030,752 Vol.
2%
USA
$4,646,690 Vol.
2%
Morocco
$8,760,248 Vol.
2%
Japan
$8,567,958 Vol.
1%
Uruguay
$7,379,374 Vol.
1%
Mexico
$6,668,553 Vol.
1%
Croatia
$7,846,023 Vol.
1%
Switzerland
$8,120,601 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$8,741,502 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$8,090,835 Vol.
1%
Canada
$11,379,547 Vol.
1%
Austria
$10,024,012 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$13,129,775 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$11,360,325 Vol.
<1%
Ivory Coast
$8,684,650 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$8,062,557 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$9,680,351 Vol.
<1%
Algeria
$10,213,134 Vol.
<1%
Scotland
$10,829,232 Vol.
<1%
Tunisia
$10,790,399 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$17,253,603 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$10,091,407 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand
$15,756,813 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$12,165,983 Vol.
<1%
Jordan
$16,171,593 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$19,586,013 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$11,226,802 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistan
$26,540,127 Vol.
<1%
South Africa
$19,125,375 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$10,173,433 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$11,228,911 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$425,232,297End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$425,232,297End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain edges trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, anchored by their sustained #1 FIFA ranking as of March 28 and a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Egypt, but France surged to #2 (11.1%) after Kylian Mbappé's opener secured a 2-1 upset of Brazil three days ago. England (12.8%) impressed 2-0 versus Japan, Argentina (9.8%) thrashed Zambia 3-0, while Brazil (8.6%) stumbled to a 1-1 draw with Croatia, exposing inconsistencies. The final draw shields these top seeds from early clashes until semifinals, amplifying competitive dynamics in a 48-team field ripe for knockout drama despite elite recent form.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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