Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their ascent to No. 1 in the latest FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Rankings (1877 points) following dominant March friendlies, showcasing midfield depth with Rodri, Pedri, and Lamine Yamal amid a complete squad. The race remains tightly bunched among the top five—Argentina (No. 2), France (No. 3), England (No. 4), and Brazil (No. 5)—clustered within 50 ranking points, as France's recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil highlighted parity in form during the international break. Ongoing UEFA playoffs and an expanded 48-team format with seed protections delaying clashes until semifinals amplify the competitive dynamics for these powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$423,641,878 Vol.
$423,641,878 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$423,641,878 Vol.
$423,641,878 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their ascent to No. 1 in the latest FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Rankings (1877 points) following dominant March friendlies, showcasing midfield depth with Rodri, Pedri, and Lamine Yamal amid a complete squad. The race remains tightly bunched among the top five—Argentina (No. 2), France (No. 3), England (No. 4), and Brazil (No. 5)—clustered within 50 ranking points, as France's recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil highlighted parity in form during the international break. Ongoing UEFA playoffs and an expanded 48-team format with seed protections delaying clashes until semifinals amplify the competitive dynamics for these powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions