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Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

$2,006,652 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026
Polymarket

$2,006,652 Vol.

Polymarket

Italy

$515,109 Vol.

No

Netherlands

$7,760 Vol.

Yes

Belgium

$16,166 Vol.

Yes

Croatia

$6,401 Vol.

Yes

Colombia

$13,674 Vol.

Yes

Uruguay

$9,212 Vol.

Yes

Saudi Arabia

$10,049 Vol.

Yes

Australia

$68 Vol.

Yes

Oman

$7,790 Vol.

No

Sweden

$167,930 Vol.

Yes

United Arab Emirates

$4,269 Vol.

No

Austria

$1,754 Vol.

Yes

Poland

$542,888 Vol.

No

Finland

$5,576 Vol.

No

Ukraine

$174,683 Vol.

No

Bolivia

$25,033 Vol.

No

Bosnia and Herzegovina

$51,153 Vol.

Yes

Romania

$11,839 Vol.

No

Wales

$6,093 Vol.

No

Czechia

$48,224 Vol.

Yes

Denmark

$95,551 Vol.

No

DR Congo

$13,052 Vol.

Yes

Iraq

$8,844 Vol.

Yes

Ireland

$10,541 Vol.

No

Jamaica

$7,362 Vol.

No

New Caledonia

$10,182 Vol.

No

Suriname

$2,413 Vol.

No

Kosovo

$30,153 Vol.

No

North Macedonia

$2,766 Vol.

No

Northern Ireland

$3,465 Vol.

No

Slovakia

$12,157 Vol.

No

Turkey

$170,758 Vol.

Yes

Albania

$13,736 Vol.

No

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).Qualification for the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup wrapped up March 31 with UEFA playoff finals and inter-confederation play-offs filling the last six spots, as Bosnia and Herzegovina stunned Italy 4-1 on penalties for a dramatic return, Sweden edged Poland 3-2 on Viktor Gyökeres' hat-trick, Czechia outlasted Denmark 3-1 on penalties, and Türkiye beat Kosovo 1-0. DR Congo advanced past Jamaica 1-0 after extra time for their first appearance since 1974, while Iraq defeated Bolivia 2-1 to join AFC qualifiers like Australia and Japan. Hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico were locked in early, alongside powerhouses Argentina, Brazil, France, and England; traders now eye group draw implications amid upsets eliminating Italy, Nigeria, and Wales.

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).
Volume
$2,006,652
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2025, 8:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).Qualification for the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup wrapped up March 31 with UEFA playoff finals and inter-confederation play-offs filling the last six spots, as Bosnia and Herzegovina stunned Italy 4-1 on penalties for a dramatic return, Sweden edged Poland 3-2 on Viktor Gyökeres' hat-trick, Czechia outlasted Denmark 3-1 on penalties, and Türkiye beat Kosovo 1-0. DR Congo advanced past Jamaica 1-0 after extra time for their first appearance since 1974, while Iraq defeated Bolivia 2-1 to join AFC qualifiers like Australia and Japan. Hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico were locked in early, alongside powerhouses Argentina, Brazil, France, and England; traders now eye group draw implications amid upsets eliminating Italy, Nigeria, and Wales.

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).
Volume
$2,006,652
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2025, 8:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netherlands" at 100%, followed by "Belgium" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is "Netherlands" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Belgium" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.