Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$46,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
1 millón
85%
1,1 millones
72%
1,2 millones
49%
1,3 millones
33%
1,4 millones
14%
1,5 millones
11%
1,7 millones
7%
2 millones
5%
$46,170 Vol.
1 millón
$0 Vol.
85%
1,1 millones
$12,409 Vol.
72%
1,2 millones
$0 Vol.
49%
1,3 millones
$5,648 Vol.
33%
1,4 millones
$16,009 Vol.
14%
1,5 millones
$0 Vol.
11%
1,7 millones
$0 Vol.
7%
2 millones
$12,104 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volumen
$46,170Fecha de finalización
Feb 28, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volumen
$46,170Fecha de finalización
Feb 28, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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