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¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?

Market icon

¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?

$46,170 Vol.

Feb 28, 2027
Polymarket

$46,170 Vol.

Polymarket

1 millón

$0 Vol.

85%

1,1 millones

$12,409 Vol.

72%

1,2 millones

$0 Vol.

49%

1,3 millones

$5,648 Vol.

33%

1,4 millones

$16,009 Vol.

14%

1,5 millones

$0 Vol.

11%

1,7 millones

$0 Vol.

7%

2 millones

$12,104 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.

Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.

Venezuelan crude oil production has surged to an average 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2026, up from 903,000 bpd in February per OPEC data, driven by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing transactions with state-owned PDVSA and enabling majors like Chevron to ramp operations. This follows resumed diluted crude exports after a 15-month pause and improved diluent access critical for heavy oil transport. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism amid infrastructure decay and political risks, with EIA forecasting potential recovery toward pre-sanction peaks of 2-3 million bpd by midyear, though analysts doubt rapid gains beyond 0.3-0.5 million bpd without sustained investment. Key catalysts include Q2 PDVSA updates, OPEC+ quota adherence, and U.S. policy reviews amid volatile Brent crude yields around $80-90 per barrel.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1 millón" con 85%, seguido de "1,1 millones" con 72%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 85¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 85% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?" ha generado $46.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 7, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?" es "1 millón" con 85%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 85% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1,1 millones" con 72%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La producción de crudo venezolano alcanzará los __ barriles por día en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.