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Política·Venezuela

¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?

Market icon
Política·Venezuela

¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Sí

17% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Sí

17% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by year-end, reflecting Nicolás Maduro's firm institutional grip amid ongoing election disputes. Opposition leader Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González continue asserting victory based on tally sheets from the disputed July 28 vote, bolstered by recent reports from the Carter Center and U.S. officials like Secretary Blinken affirming González's win. However, the Biden administration has imposed fresh sanctions on Maduro allies—including 11 officials in October—but stopped short of formal recognition, prioritizing diplomatic pressure for a transition. With Maduro's term extending into January and no scheduled congressional or judicial actions by December 31, traders see significant barriers to a pre-inauguration shift, even as incoming Trump officials signal tougher foreign policy.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by year-end, reflecting Nicolás Maduro's firm institutional grip amid ongoing election disputes. Opposition leader Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González continue asserting victory based on tally sheets from the disputed July 28 vote, bolstered by recent reports from the Carter Center and U.S. officials like Secretary Blinken affirming González's win. However, the Biden administration has imposed fresh sanctions on Maduro allies—including 11 officials in October—but stopped short of formal recognition, prioritizing diplomatic pressure for a transition. With Maduro's term extending into January and no scheduled congressional or judicial actions by December 31, traders see significant barriers to a pre-inauguration shift, even as incoming Trump officials signal tougher foreign policy.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by year-end, reflecting Nicolás Maduro's firm institutional grip amid ongoing election disputes. Opposition leader Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González continue asserting victory based on tally sheets from the disputed July 28 vote, bolstered by recent reports from the Carter Center and U.S. officials like Secretary Blinken affirming González's win. However, the Biden administration has imposed fresh sanctions on Maduro allies—including 11 officials in October—but stopped short of formal recognition, prioritizing diplomatic pressure for a transition. With Maduro's term extending into January and no scheduled congressional or judicial actions by December 31, traders see significant barriers to a pre-inauguration shift, even as incoming Trump officials signal tougher foreign policy.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by year-end, reflecting Nicolás Maduro's firm institutional grip amid ongoing election disputes. Opposition leader Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González continue asserting victory based on tally sheets from the disputed July 28 vote, bolstered by recent reports from the Carter Center and U.S. officials like Secretary Blinken affirming González's win. However, the Biden administration has imposed fresh sanctions on Maduro allies—including 11 officials in October—but stopped short of formal recognition, prioritizing diplomatic pressure for a transition. With Maduro's term extending into January and no scheduled congressional or judicial actions by December 31, traders see significant barriers to a pre-inauguration shift, even as incoming Trump officials signal tougher foreign policy.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 17¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 17% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" es "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" con 17%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 17% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.