Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production ramp-up, unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas, and Optimus humanoid robot timelines drives the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan preorders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van, unveiled in 2024, has advanced only to a recent design patent with no confirmed manufacturing site, battery supply chain, or regulatory pathway, while engineering and capital focus on Cybercab fleet expansion and Model Y robotaxi services. Historical patterns show larger autonomous platforms trailing initial launches. A major regulatory breakthrough or unexpected partnership could accelerate progress, though current verified developments point to post-2026 timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
10% probabilidad
$32,092 Vol.
$32,092 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
10% probabilidad
$32,092 Vol.
$32,092 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production ramp-up, unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas, and Optimus humanoid robot timelines drives the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan preorders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van, unveiled in 2024, has advanced only to a recent design patent with no confirmed manufacturing site, battery supply chain, or regulatory pathway, while engineering and capital focus on Cybercab fleet expansion and Model Y robotaxi services. Historical patterns show larger autonomous platforms trailing initial launches. A major regulatory breakthrough or unexpected partnership could accelerate progress, though current verified developments point to post-2026 timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volumen
$32,092Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production ramp-up, unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas, and Optimus humanoid robot timelines drives the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan preorders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van, unveiled in 2024, has advanced only to a recent design patent with no confirmed manufacturing site, battery supply chain, or regulatory pathway, while engineering and capital focus on Cybercab fleet expansion and Model Y robotaxi services. Historical patterns show larger autonomous platforms trailing initial launches. A major regulatory breakthrough or unexpected partnership could accelerate progress, though current verified developments point to post-2026 timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$32,092Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production ramp-up, unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployment at Giga Texas, and Optimus humanoid robot timelines drives the 90.5% market-implied probability against Robovan preorders before 2027. The 20-passenger autonomous van, unveiled in 2024, has advanced only to a recent design patent with no confirmed manufacturing site, battery supply chain, or regulatory pathway, while engineering and capital focus on Cybercab fleet expansion and Model Y robotaxi services. Historical patterns show larger autonomous platforms trailing initial launches. A major regulatory breakthrough or unexpected partnership could accelerate progress, though current verified developments point to post-2026 timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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