Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.2% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where its "thinking" variant holds the #1 spot at 1504 ELO as of March 26—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released February 5, Claude Opus 4.6 excels in coding, planning, and sustained reasoning, bolstering Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iterations from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1484 ELO, #6) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4). Google's 23.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent benchmark records, but traders anticipate Anthropic's momentum persisting absent major surprises; watch for pre-June releases or LMSYS updates that could shift the closely trailed pack.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 67.3%
Título del ítem del grupo 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.8%
$2,884,447 Vol.
$2,884,447 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
Título del ítem del grupo
24%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67.3%
Título del ítem del grupo 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.8%
$2,884,447 Vol.
$2,884,447 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$567,857 Vol.
67%
Título del ítem del grupo
$314,820 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$102,153 Vol.
6%
xAI
$843,690 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$208,579 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$110,905 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$170,425 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$290,119 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$123,665 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$152,233 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.2% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where its "thinking" variant holds the #1 spot at 1504 ELO as of March 26—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released February 5, Claude Opus 4.6 excels in coding, planning, and sustained reasoning, bolstering Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iterations from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1484 ELO, #6) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4). Google's 23.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent benchmark records, but traders anticipate Anthropic's momentum persisting absent major surprises; watch for pre-June releases or LMSYS updates that could shift the closely trailed pack.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$2,884,447Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.2% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where its "thinking" variant holds the #1 spot at 1504 ELO as of March 26—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released February 5, Claude Opus 4.6 excels in coding, planning, and sustained reasoning, bolstering Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iterations from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1484 ELO, #6) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4). Google's 23.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent benchmark records, but traders anticipate Anthropic's momentum persisting absent major surprises; watch for pre-June releases or LMSYS updates that could shift the closely trailed pack.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,884,447Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 67.2% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where its "thinking" variant holds the #1 spot at 1504 ELO as of March 26—11 points ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview. Released February 5, Claude Opus 4.6 excels in coding, planning, and sustained reasoning, bolstering Anthropic's competitive edge amid rapid iterations from rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (1484 ELO, #6) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4). Google's 23.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's recent benchmark records, but traders anticipate Anthropic's momentum persisting absent major surprises; watch for pre-June releases or LMSYS updates that could shift the closely trailed pack.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes