Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$1,165,394 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
16%
DeepSeek
8%
Alibaba
8%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
3%
$1,165,394 Vol.
OpenAI
$337,577 Vol.
29%
xAI
$537,589 Vol.
16%
DeepSeek
$23,023 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$4,633 Vol.
8%
Meta
$0 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$1,906 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$2,695 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$1,165,394Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$1,165,394Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI at 29% and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 AI model spot—likely per LMSYS Chatbot Arena—by June 30, reflecting expectations of leapfrogging amid a volatile March 2026 release frenzy with 12 frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads leaderboards with superior reasoning, edging Google's multimodal Gemini 3.1 Pro, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trail at #3; Meta delayed its Avocado model over performance issues. Key catalysts include anticipated GPT-5 upgrades, Grok-5 previews, Claude 5, and Gemini 4 before Q2 end, with Chinese challengers like DeepSeek (8%) gaining on efficiency benchmarks. Resolution hinges on blind user-voted Elo shifts in this skin-in-the-game race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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