Trader consensus in the PA-09 House race heavily favors the Republican Party at 92% implied probability, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index) and incumbent Dan Meuser's commanding position after defeating a primary challenger 78%-22% in April. Meuser has raised over $1 million, dwarfing Democratic nominee Gary Wegman's fundraising, while all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections) rate the seat Safe Republican with no competitive polling shifts in recent weeks. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, Meuser health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in such districts make shifts unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
PA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the PA-09 House race heavily favors the Republican Party at 92% implied probability, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index) and incumbent Dan Meuser's commanding position after defeating a primary challenger 78%-22% in April. Meuser has raised over $1 million, dwarfing Democratic nominee Gary Wegman's fundraising, while all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections) rate the seat Safe Republican with no competitive polling shifts in recent weeks. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, Meuser health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in such districts make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the PA-09 House race heavily favors the Republican Party at 92% implied probability, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index) and incumbent Dan Meuser's commanding position after defeating a primary challenger 78%-22% in April. Meuser has raised over $1 million, dwarfing Democratic nominee Gary Wegman's fundraising, while all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections) rate the seat Safe Republican with no competitive polling shifts in recent weeks. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, Meuser health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in such districts make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the PA-09 House race heavily favors the Republican Party at 92% implied probability, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (R+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index) and incumbent Dan Meuser's commanding position after defeating a primary challenger 78%-22% in April. Meuser has raised over $1 million, dwarfing Democratic nominee Gary Wegman's fundraising, while all major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections) rate the seat Safe Republican with no competitive polling shifts in recent weeks. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this dynamic ahead of the November 5 general election. Scenarios that could challenge this include a late-breaking scandal, Meuser health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in such districts make shifts unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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