Trader consensus heavily favors "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 64% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's April 1 announcement of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon ($50 billion with expanded AWS commitments), Nvidia ($30 billion), and SoftBank ($30 billion)—granting 18-24 months of operational runway despite $14 billion projected 2026 losses and $25 billion annualized revenue. This massive private capital influx, the largest in history, eases liquidity pressures amid ongoing project cuts like Sora to prioritize enterprise AI tools, tempering earlier Q4 2026 IPO rumors and finance team buildout. Higher market cap outcomes (e.g., 1.25T–1.5T at 9.7%) price in private valuation strength from AI infrastructure scaling but factor public discounts for profitability hurdles, regulatory AI scrutiny, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public CEO duties; watch for S-1 filings or AGI-linked investor triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNo habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 64%
1.25T–1.5T 9.7%
1,5 billones+ 7.2%
1 billón–1,25 billones 7.1%
$1,545,239 Vol.
$1,545,239 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
3%
500–750B
2%
750B–1T
5%
1 billón–1,25 billones
7%
1.25T–1.5T
10%
1,5 billones+
7%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
64%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026 64%
1.25T–1.5T 9.7%
1,5 billones+ 7.2%
1 billón–1,25 billones 7.1%
$1,545,239 Vol.
$1,545,239 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500 mil millones
$256,652 Vol.
3%
500–750B
$138,459 Vol.
2%
750B–1T
$129,120 Vol.
5%
1 billón–1,25 billones
$171,647 Vol.
7%
1.25T–1.5T
$486,554 Vol.
10%
1,5 billones+
$91,433 Vol.
7%
No habrá OPV antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026
$271,391 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus heavily favors "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 64% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's April 1 announcement of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon ($50 billion with expanded AWS commitments), Nvidia ($30 billion), and SoftBank ($30 billion)—granting 18-24 months of operational runway despite $14 billion projected 2026 losses and $25 billion annualized revenue. This massive private capital influx, the largest in history, eases liquidity pressures amid ongoing project cuts like Sora to prioritize enterprise AI tools, tempering earlier Q4 2026 IPO rumors and finance team buildout. Higher market cap outcomes (e.g., 1.25T–1.5T at 9.7%) price in private valuation strength from AI infrastructure scaling but factor public discounts for profitability hurdles, regulatory AI scrutiny, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public CEO duties; watch for S-1 filings or AGI-linked investor triggers.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,545,239Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus heavily favors "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 64% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's April 1 announcement of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon ($50 billion with expanded AWS commitments), Nvidia ($30 billion), and SoftBank ($30 billion)—granting 18-24 months of operational runway despite $14 billion projected 2026 losses and $25 billion annualized revenue. This massive private capital influx, the largest in history, eases liquidity pressures amid ongoing project cuts like Sora to prioritize enterprise AI tools, tempering earlier Q4 2026 IPO rumors and finance team buildout. Higher market cap outcomes (e.g., 1.25T–1.5T at 9.7%) price in private valuation strength from AI infrastructure scaling but factor public discounts for profitability hurdles, regulatory AI scrutiny, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public CEO duties; watch for S-1 filings or AGI-linked investor triggers.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,545,239Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors "No IPO by December 31, 2026" at 64% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's April 1 announcement of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon ($50 billion with expanded AWS commitments), Nvidia ($30 billion), and SoftBank ($30 billion)—granting 18-24 months of operational runway despite $14 billion projected 2026 losses and $25 billion annualized revenue. This massive private capital influx, the largest in history, eases liquidity pressures amid ongoing project cuts like Sora to prioritize enterprise AI tools, tempering earlier Q4 2026 IPO rumors and finance team buildout. Higher market cap outcomes (e.g., 1.25T–1.5T at 9.7%) price in private valuation strength from AI infrastructure scaling but factor public discounts for profitability hurdles, regulatory AI scrutiny, and Sam Altman's reluctance for public CEO duties; watch for S-1 filings or AGI-linked investor triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes