Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging energy costs from escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, which have spiked oil prices and gasoline. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast projects a 0.84% month-over-month headline CPI increase—far above typical 0.2-0.3%—pushing the annual rate to around 3.25% from February's 2.4%, with contributions from airfares and utilities. This reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment aligning with previews like Seeking Alpha's 3.2-3.4% range. Realistic challenges include a sharp pre-deadline oil price reversal or nowcast overestimation of volatility, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado≥2,8% 98.5%
≤2.0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,069,885 Vol.
$3,069,885 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
99%
≥2,8% 98.5%
≤2.0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,069,885 Vol.
$3,069,885 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.0%
$183,567 Vol.
1%
2,1%
$91,621 Vol.
<1%
2,2%
$86,611 Vol.
<1%
2,3%
$210,652 Vol.
<1%
2,4%
$188,592 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$183,056 Vol.
<1%
2,6%
$153,771 Vol.
<1%
2,7%
$154,945 Vol.
<1%
≥2,8%
$1,817,069 Vol.
99%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging energy costs from escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, which have spiked oil prices and gasoline. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast projects a 0.84% month-over-month headline CPI increase—far above typical 0.2-0.3%—pushing the annual rate to around 3.25% from February's 2.4%, with contributions from airfares and utilities. This reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment aligning with previews like Seeking Alpha's 3.2-3.4% range. Realistic challenges include a sharp pre-deadline oil price reversal or nowcast overestimation of volatility, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$3,069,885Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging energy costs from escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, which have spiked oil prices and gasoline. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast projects a 0.84% month-over-month headline CPI increase—far above typical 0.2-0.3%—pushing the annual rate to around 3.25% from February's 2.4%, with contributions from airfares and utilities. This reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment aligning with previews like Seeking Alpha's 3.2-3.4% range. Realistic challenges include a sharp pre-deadline oil price reversal or nowcast overestimation of volatility, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$3,069,885Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by surging energy costs from escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, which have spiked oil prices and gasoline. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast projects a 0.84% month-over-month headline CPI increase—far above typical 0.2-0.3%—pushing the annual rate to around 3.25% from February's 2.4%, with contributions from airfares and utilities. This reflects aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment aligning with previews like Seeking Alpha's 3.2-3.4% range. Realistic challenges include a sharp pre-deadline oil price reversal or nowcast overestimation of volatility, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes