Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by the Cleveland Fed's April 2 nowcast of 3.25% year-over-year— a sharp rebound from February's 2.4% reading—primarily fueled by surging gasoline and oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Sticky core CPI at 2.60% YoY reinforces this positioning, with early tariff passthrough adding upward pressure on goods prices. While strong sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game capital flows, realistic challenges include softer BLS energy data upon April 10 release or larger-than-expected shelter cost declines, potentially capping the print below consensus thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado≥2,8% 98.4%
≤2.0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,069,884 Vol.
$3,069,884 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
≥2,8% 98.4%
≤2.0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,069,884 Vol.
$3,069,884 Vol.
10 abr 2026
≤2.0%
$183,566 Vol.
1%
2,1%
$91,621 Vol.
<1%
2,2%
$86,611 Vol.
<1%
2,3%
$210,652 Vol.
<1%
2,4%
$188,592 Vol.
<1%
2,5%
$183,056 Vol.
<1%
2,6%
$153,771 Vol.
<1%
2,7%
$154,945 Vol.
<1%
≥2,8%
$1,817,069 Vol.
98%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by the Cleveland Fed's April 2 nowcast of 3.25% year-over-year— a sharp rebound from February's 2.4% reading—primarily fueled by surging gasoline and oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Sticky core CPI at 2.60% YoY reinforces this positioning, with early tariff passthrough adding upward pressure on goods prices. While strong sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game capital flows, realistic challenges include softer BLS energy data upon April 10 release or larger-than-expected shelter cost declines, potentially capping the print below consensus thresholds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$3,069,884Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by the Cleveland Fed's April 2 nowcast of 3.25% year-over-year— a sharp rebound from February's 2.4% reading—primarily fueled by surging gasoline and oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Sticky core CPI at 2.60% YoY reinforces this positioning, with early tariff passthrough adding upward pressure on goods prices. While strong sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game capital flows, realistic challenges include softer BLS energy data upon April 10 release or larger-than-expected shelter cost declines, potentially capping the print below consensus thresholds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$3,069,884Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, driven by the Cleveland Fed's April 2 nowcast of 3.25% year-over-year— a sharp rebound from February's 2.4% reading—primarily fueled by surging gasoline and oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Sticky core CPI at 2.60% YoY reinforces this positioning, with early tariff passthrough adding upward pressure on goods prices. While strong sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game capital flows, realistic challenges include softer BLS energy data upon April 10 release or larger-than-expected shelter cost declines, potentially capping the print below consensus thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes