Name: How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?
Start: 2024-03-20T22:19:43.869223Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the number of SpaceX Starship launches that successfully reach space in the year 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly one SpaceX Starship launch successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

¿SpaceX tendrá 200 lanzamientos o más en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

¿SpaceX tendrá 12 o más lanzamientos en enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

¿Logrará la Starship de SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 un amerizaje exitoso?

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

¿La misión lunar Doge-1 se lanzará antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Tesla lanzará la conducción autónoma total sin supervisión (FSD) para el 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

¿Terminará una moneda lanzada en 2026 el año entre las 50 principales?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Aster (ASTER/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ASTER/USDT “Low” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ASTER_USDT
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ASTER/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

¿Bajará Aster a $0.40 para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.

If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS).

If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.

If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

¿El ticker público de SpaceX será $STAR?

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿SpaceX sale a bolsa a través de la empresa "SPAR" de Bill Ackman?

¿La capitalización de mercado de SpaceX será mayor que $1 billón al cierre del mercado en el día de la OPI?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Aterrizaje humano en la Luna en 2026?

As of market creation, Starbucks is estimated to release earnings on January 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Starbucks's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.58 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Starbucks reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.58 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Starbucks releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


¿Superará Starbucks (SBUX) las ganancias trimestrales?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

¿La capitalización bursátil de SpaceX superará el billón de dólares tras su salida a bolsa?

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Será Morgan Stanley o alguna de sus afiliadas de suscripción el principal asegurador en la oferta pública inicial de SpaceX?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched.

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

¿Más de 2.000 tránsitos de portacontenedores por el Canal de Suez en el primer semestre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

¿Más de 4 monedas lanzadas en 2026 terminan el año en el top 100?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 6 or more tokens launched in 2026 end the year with an FDV above $1B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data).

Stablecoins, LSTs, liquidity pool tokens, or synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

¿Terminarán el año con más de $1B FDV 6 o más monedas lanzadas en 2026?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.

¿Más de 1.000 tránsitos de portacontenedores por el Canal de Suez en el primer trimestre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Glenn Flight 3 (NG-3) successfully launches from its launch pad by the specified date, 11:59PM ET.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin (https://www.youtube.com/@blueorigin/streams), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of New Glenn with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

¿Despegará el New Glenn Vuelo 3 antes del 31 de enero de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Otro bebé de Elon antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Irá Elon Musk al programa de Joe Rogan antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

¿Ganarán los Seattle Seahawks el Super Bowl 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.


¿Ganará el Colorado Avalanche la Copa Stanley de la NHL 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XPL (XPL/USDT) between November 25, 2025, 16:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XPL/USDT “Low” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XPL_USDT
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XPL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

¿Caerá Plasma a $0.08 para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Will Artemis II launch by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Lanzará X una stablecoin en USD en 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

1
$73,966 Vol.
No

2
$57,262 Vol.
No

3
$82,058 Vol.
No

4
$262,564 Vol.
Yes

5+
$286,410 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Reglas

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Contexto del Mercado

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Acerca de

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

1$73,966 Vol.No

2$57,262 Vol.No

3$82,058 Vol.No

4$262,564 Vol.Yes

5+$286,410 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Reglas

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Contexto del Mercado

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Acerca de

1
$73,966 Vol.
No

2
$57,262 Vol.
No

3
$82,058 Vol.
No

4
$262,564 Vol.
Yes

5+
$286,410 Vol.
No