Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 1 de abril?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 1 de abril?
17°C 100.0%
10°C o menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$272,381 Vol.
$272,381 Vol.
1 abr 2026
10°C o menos
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Sí
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C o más
No
17°C 100.0%
10°C o menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$272,381 Vol.
$272,381 Vol.
1 abr 2026
10°C o menos
$12,301 Vol.
No
11°C
$11,213 Vol.
No
12°C
$16,753 Vol.
No
13°C
$25,580 Vol.
No
14°C
$21,351 Vol.
No
15°C
$26,761 Vol.
No
16°C
$62,103 Vol.
No
17°C
$28,586 Vol.
Sí
18°C
$22,575 Vol.
No
19°C
$20,697 Vol.
No
20°C o más
$24,461 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volumen
$272,381Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$272,381Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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