Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 11°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on March 17, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime highs of 10-12°C under a stable high-pressure ridge with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds around 5-10 km/h. Official data from Poland's IMGW meteorological service corroborates this, showing surface observations and soundings consistent with capped warm air advection limited by mid-level subsidence, against March historical averages of 6-9°C. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated frontal passage introducing 2-3°C warmer advection or model underestimation of boundary-layer mixing, potentially pushing peaks to 12°C, though low-probability given current 500 hPa geopotential height patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 17?
$45,553 Vol.
$45,553 Vol.
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
$45,553 Vol.
$45,553 Vol.
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 11°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on March 17, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime highs of 10-12°C under a stable high-pressure ridge with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds around 5-10 km/h. Official data from Poland's IMGW meteorological service corroborates this, showing surface observations and soundings consistent with capped warm air advection limited by mid-level subsidence, against March historical averages of 6-9°C. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated frontal passage introducing 2-3°C warmer advection or model underestimation of boundary-layer mixing, potentially pushing peaks to 12°C, though low-probability given current 500 hPa geopotential height patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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