Traders overwhelmingly back a highest temperature of 32°C or below in Lucknow on March 20 at 93.4% implied probability, propelled by consensus forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models like ECMWF projecting a daytime maximum near 31-32°C. This aligns with historical March climatology, where averages hover around 31.5°C amid typical spring conditions, reinforced by recent western disturbances maintaining cloudy skies and suppressing solar heating. Upper-air analyses show stable mild patterns with no heat dome signals. Realistic challenges include abrupt clearing for enhanced insolation, potentially lifting peaks to 33-34°C, or model biases underestimating boundary-layer warming—though ensemble spreads remain tight at ±1.5°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
32°C o menos 93.8%
33°C 2.7%
34°C 1.0%
36°C <1%
$34,896 Vol.
$34,896 Vol.
32°C o menos
94%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
32°C o menos 93.8%
33°C 2.7%
34°C 1.0%
36°C <1%
$34,896 Vol.
$34,896 Vol.
32°C o menos
94%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back a highest temperature of 32°C or below in Lucknow on March 20 at 93.4% implied probability, propelled by consensus forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models like ECMWF projecting a daytime maximum near 31-32°C. This aligns with historical March climatology, where averages hover around 31.5°C amid typical spring conditions, reinforced by recent western disturbances maintaining cloudy skies and suppressing solar heating. Upper-air analyses show stable mild patterns with no heat dome signals. Realistic challenges include abrupt clearing for enhanced insolation, potentially lifting peaks to 33-34°C, or model biases underestimating boundary-layer warming—though ensemble spreads remain tight at ±1.5°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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