Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to no Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of a public S-1 filing since the company's confidential SEC submission in January 2026. The standard 3-6 month review process, compounded by reported compliance overhauls and volatile equity markets, has stalled progress toward a targeted March debut, eroding near-term expectations. Secondary trading prices Discord shares near $40, implying a sub-$15 billion market cap aligned with its 2021 private valuation and supporting 10.5% odds for that bucket, while brackets above 15 billion carry under 2% due to profitability hurdles despite $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users. Key catalyst: public S-1 disclosure amid FOMC rate path scrutiny.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026 83%
<15 mil millones 10.3%
30.000M+ 1.8%
15–20 mil millones 1.8%
$810,940 Vol.
$810,940 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<15 mil millones
10%
15–20 mil millones
2%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
1%
30.000M+
2%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026
83%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026 83%
<15 mil millones 10.3%
30.000M+ 1.8%
15–20 mil millones 1.8%
$810,940 Vol.
$810,940 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<15 mil millones
$291,119 Vol.
10%
15–20 mil millones
$103,388 Vol.
2%
20–25B
$67,385 Vol.
1%
25–30B
$82,322 Vol.
1%
30.000M+
$88,767 Vol.
2%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026
$177,958 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to no Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of a public S-1 filing since the company's confidential SEC submission in January 2026. The standard 3-6 month review process, compounded by reported compliance overhauls and volatile equity markets, has stalled progress toward a targeted March debut, eroding near-term expectations. Secondary trading prices Discord shares near $40, implying a sub-$15 billion market cap aligned with its 2021 private valuation and supporting 10.5% odds for that bucket, while brackets above 15 billion carry under 2% due to profitability hurdles despite $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users. Key catalyst: public S-1 disclosure amid FOMC rate path scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volumen
$810,940Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to no Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of a public S-1 filing since the company's confidential SEC submission in January 2026. The standard 3-6 month review process, compounded by reported compliance overhauls and volatile equity markets, has stalled progress toward a targeted March debut, eroding near-term expectations. Secondary trading prices Discord shares near $40, implying a sub-$15 billion market cap aligned with its 2021 private valuation and supporting 10.5% odds for that bucket, while brackets above 15 billion carry under 2% due to profitability hurdles despite $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users. Key catalyst: public S-1 disclosure amid FOMC rate path scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$810,940Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to no Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of a public S-1 filing since the company's confidential SEC submission in January 2026. The standard 3-6 month review process, compounded by reported compliance overhauls and volatile equity markets, has stalled progress toward a targeted March debut, eroding near-term expectations. Secondary trading prices Discord shares near $40, implying a sub-$15 billion market cap aligned with its 2021 private valuation and supporting 10.5% odds for that bucket, while brackets above 15 billion carry under 2% due to profitability hurdles despite $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users. Key catalyst: public S-1 disclosure amid FOMC rate path scrutiny.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes