The US military's large-scale airstrikes on Venezuelan military targets in Caracas on January 3, 2026, which captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, marked a dramatic escalation in bilateral tensions over alleged narco-terrorism and authoritarianism. Three months later, with Delcy Rodríguez serving as interim president, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on her yesterday, signaling de-escalation and steps toward normalized diplomatic relations. No further airstrikes or military actions have occurred since January, amid regional calls for restraint and US congressional scrutiny of foreign interventions. Traders weigh low escalation risks absent renewed provocations like border incursions or alliance shifts with Russia and China, with key developments tied to Venezuela's National Assembly dynamics and potential US aid packages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$2,523,467 Vol.
31 ene 2026
31 de marzo
1%
31 de diciembre
22%
$2,523,467 Vol.
31 de marzo
$167,734 Vol.
1%
31 de diciembre
$482,189 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US military's large-scale airstrikes on Venezuelan military targets in Caracas on January 3, 2026, which captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, marked a dramatic escalation in bilateral tensions over alleged narco-terrorism and authoritarianism. Three months later, with Delcy Rodríguez serving as interim president, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on her yesterday, signaling de-escalation and steps toward normalized diplomatic relations. No further airstrikes or military actions have occurred since January, amid regional calls for restraint and US congressional scrutiny of foreign interventions. Traders weigh low escalation risks absent renewed provocations like border incursions or alliance shifts with Russia and China, with key developments tied to Venezuela's National Assembly dynamics and potential US aid packages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Volumen
$2,523,467Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US military's large-scale airstrikes on Venezuelan military targets in Caracas on January 3, 2026, which captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, marked a dramatic escalation in bilateral tensions over alleged narco-terrorism and authoritarianism. Three months later, with Delcy Rodríguez serving as interim president, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on her yesterday, signaling de-escalation and steps toward normalized diplomatic relations. No further airstrikes or military actions have occurred since January, amid regional calls for restraint and US congressional scrutiny of foreign interventions. Traders weigh low escalation risks absent renewed provocations like border incursions or alliance shifts with Russia and China, with key developments tied to Venezuela's National Assembly dynamics and potential US aid packages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,523,467Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's large-scale airstrikes on Venezuelan military targets in Caracas on January 3, 2026, which captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, marked a dramatic escalation in bilateral tensions over alleged narco-terrorism and authoritarianism. Three months later, with Delcy Rodríguez serving as interim president, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on her yesterday, signaling de-escalation and steps toward normalized diplomatic relations. No further airstrikes or military actions have occurred since January, amid regional calls for restraint and US congressional scrutiny of foreign interventions. Traders weigh low escalation risks absent renewed provocations like border incursions or alliance shifts with Russia and China, with key developments tied to Venezuela's National Assembly dynamics and potential US aid packages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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