Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data places March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 20th-century average—trailing the record set by March 2024 (1.35°C per NOAA) and March 2025 (1.31°C, third-warmest)—yielding a market-implied 98.4% consensus for fourth or lower ranking amid lingering La Niña conditions that suppressed equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and overall global averages. NOAA preliminary observations align, reflecting fading El Niño influences from prior years and natural variability overriding regional U.S. heatwaves. Finalized reports from NOAA (mid-April) and Berkeley Earth could refine rankings via ocean data adjustments, but upward revisions exceeding 2025's anomaly would require anomalous late-month warming unforeshadowed by models. Traders await these for resolution near month's end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
¿El 1, 2 y 3 de marzo de 2026 son los más calurosos registrados?
4.º o inferior 99.2%
3º más caluroso <1%
El más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$291,993 Vol.
$291,993 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
<1%
3º más caluroso
<1%
4.º o inferior
99%
4.º o inferior 99.2%
3º más caluroso <1%
El más caluroso <1%
Segundo más caluroso <1%
$291,993 Vol.
$291,993 Vol.
10 abr 2026
El más caluroso
$107,515 Vol.
<1%
Segundo más caluroso
$54,706 Vol.
<1%
3º más caluroso
$96,687 Vol.
<1%
4.º o inferior
$33,085 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data places March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 20th-century average—trailing the record set by March 2024 (1.35°C per NOAA) and March 2025 (1.31°C, third-warmest)—yielding a market-implied 98.4% consensus for fourth or lower ranking amid lingering La Niña conditions that suppressed equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and overall global averages. NOAA preliminary observations align, reflecting fading El Niño influences from prior years and natural variability overriding regional U.S. heatwaves. Finalized reports from NOAA (mid-April) and Berkeley Earth could refine rankings via ocean data adjustments, but upward revisions exceeding 2025's anomaly would require anomalous late-month warming unforeshadowed by models. Traders await these for resolution near month's end.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volumen
$291,993Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data places March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 20th-century average—trailing the record set by March 2024 (1.35°C per NOAA) and March 2025 (1.31°C, third-warmest)—yielding a market-implied 98.4% consensus for fourth or lower ranking amid lingering La Niña conditions that suppressed equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and overall global averages. NOAA preliminary observations align, reflecting fading El Niño influences from prior years and natural variability overriding regional U.S. heatwaves. Finalized reports from NOAA (mid-April) and Berkeley Earth could refine rankings via ocean data adjustments, but upward revisions exceeding 2025's anomaly would require anomalous late-month warming unforeshadowed by models. Traders await these for resolution near month's end.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$291,993Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data places March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 20th-century average—trailing the record set by March 2024 (1.35°C per NOAA) and March 2025 (1.31°C, third-warmest)—yielding a market-implied 98.4% consensus for fourth or lower ranking amid lingering La Niña conditions that suppressed equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and overall global averages. NOAA preliminary observations align, reflecting fading El Niño influences from prior years and natural variability overriding regional U.S. heatwaves. Finalized reports from NOAA (mid-April) and Berkeley Earth could refine rankings via ocean data adjustments, but upward revisions exceeding 2025's anomaly would require anomalous late-month warming unforeshadowed by models. Traders await these for resolution near month's end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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