Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the absence of any full-scale ground offensive to occupy territory midway through the year. The Trump administration has escalated targeted military actions—such as the January 3 Venezuela intervention capturing Nicolás Maduro, naval strikes on drug vessels, and over 4,000 additional troops deployed to Caribbean waters—but emphasized coalitions with Latin American allies against cartels at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference. Recent May reports of revived Panama jungle training and spy flights near Cuba sparked speculation, yet a senior U.S. general denied invasion preparations on March 19. With sanctions and diplomacy prevailing amid high political and international backlash risks, traders see slim odds of escalation to outright invasion before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$219,902 Vol.
$219,902 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$219,902 Vol.
$219,902 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the absence of any full-scale ground offensive to occupy territory midway through the year. The Trump administration has escalated targeted military actions—such as the January 3 Venezuela intervention capturing Nicolás Maduro, naval strikes on drug vessels, and over 4,000 additional troops deployed to Caribbean waters—but emphasized coalitions with Latin American allies against cartels at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference. Recent May reports of revived Panama jungle training and spy flights near Cuba sparked speculation, yet a senior U.S. general denied invasion preparations on March 19. With sanctions and diplomacy prevailing amid high political and international backlash risks, traders see slim odds of escalation to outright invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volumen
$219,902Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the absence of any full-scale ground offensive to occupy territory midway through the year. The Trump administration has escalated targeted military actions—such as the January 3 Venezuela intervention capturing Nicolás Maduro, naval strikes on drug vessels, and over 4,000 additional troops deployed to Caribbean waters—but emphasized coalitions with Latin American allies against cartels at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference. Recent May reports of revived Panama jungle training and spy flights near Cuba sparked speculation, yet a senior U.S. general denied invasion preparations on March 19. With sanctions and diplomacy prevailing amid high political and international backlash risks, traders see slim odds of escalation to outright invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$219,902Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the absence of any full-scale ground offensive to occupy territory midway through the year. The Trump administration has escalated targeted military actions—such as the January 3 Venezuela intervention capturing Nicolás Maduro, naval strikes on drug vessels, and over 4,000 additional troops deployed to Caribbean waters—but emphasized coalitions with Latin American allies against cartels at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference. Recent May reports of revived Panama jungle training and spy flights near Cuba sparked speculation, yet a senior U.S. general denied invasion preparations on March 19. With sanctions and diplomacy prevailing amid high political and international backlash risks, traders see slim odds of escalation to outright invasion before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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