Elon Musk's ineligibility to serve as president under the U.S. Constitution's natural-born citizen requirement remains the dominant factor behind the 99% trader consensus against an announcement before 2027. This structural barrier, combined with Musk's repeated public statements prioritizing his companies and other political involvement over candidacy, has kept probabilities stable. Historical patterns of eligibility challenges and the absence of any qualifying developments in recent months further reinforce market pricing. Late-breaking legal reinterpretations, a successful constitutional amendment process, or an unexpected shift in Musk's stated intentions could still alter outcomes within the window, though such paths face significant procedural and political hurdles.