Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65.5% implied probability of having the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and its "thinking" variant dominating the top two spots on the Arena LLM leaderboard with scores of 1504 and 1500 Elo, respectively. Released in early 2026, this large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and sustained tasks, narrowly outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493. Google holds 23.5% as a close challenger amid its rapid iterations, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at sixth (1484), reflecting weaker recent benchmarks. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta trails at fourth. With three months left, anticipated releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini 4 could reshape standings, underscoring prediction markets' sensitivity to capability demonstrations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 65.5%
Google 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,909,762 Vol.
$2,909,762 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
66%
24%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 65.5%
Google 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,909,762 Vol.
$2,909,762 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$570,175 Vol.
66%
$317,271 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$103,815 Vol.
8%
xAI
$848,083 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$210,911 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$171,693 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$112,670 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$292,897 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$125,264 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$156,982 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65.5% implied probability of having the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and its "thinking" variant dominating the top two spots on the Arena LLM leaderboard with scores of 1504 and 1500 Elo, respectively. Released in early 2026, this large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and sustained tasks, narrowly outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493. Google holds 23.5% as a close challenger amid its rapid iterations, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at sixth (1484), reflecting weaker recent benchmarks. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta trails at fourth. With three months left, anticipated releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini 4 could reshape standings, underscoring prediction markets' sensitivity to capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$2,909,762Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65.5% implied probability of having the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and its "thinking" variant dominating the top two spots on the Arena LLM leaderboard with scores of 1504 and 1500 Elo, respectively. Released in early 2026, this large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and sustained tasks, narrowly outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493. Google holds 23.5% as a close challenger amid its rapid iterations, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at sixth (1484), reflecting weaker recent benchmarks. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta trails at fourth. With three months left, anticipated releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini 4 could reshape standings, underscoring prediction markets' sensitivity to capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,909,762Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65.5% implied probability of having the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and its "thinking" variant dominating the top two spots on the Arena LLM leaderboard with scores of 1504 and 1500 Elo, respectively. Released in early 2026, this large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and sustained tasks, narrowly outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1493. Google holds 23.5% as a close challenger amid its rapid iterations, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at sixth (1484), reflecting weaker recent benchmarks. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta trails at fourth. With three months left, anticipated releases like potential Claude 5 or Gemini 4 could reshape standings, underscoring prediction markets' sensitivity to capability demonstrations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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