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Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?

Market icon

Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?

Apr. 30

Apr. 30

$483,182 Vol.

30. Apr. 2026
Polymarket

$483,182 Vol.

Polymarket

Ruwais Raffinerie

$41,710 Vol.

16%

Ras Tanura

$38,704 Vol.

19%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$37,653 Vol.

12%

Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex

$47,952 Vol.

9%

Ghawar-Feld

$12,578 Vol.

8%

Khurais-Feld

$15,170 Vol.

8%

Safaniya-Feld

$11,787 Vol.

7%

Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq

$38,613 Vol.

7%

Leviathan-Feld

$8,398 Vol.

7%

Burj Khalifa

$9,335 Vol.

5%

Al Zour Raffinerie

$30,904 Vol.

4%

Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Kernforschungszentrum)

$87,189 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war ignited by February 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, a fragile lull in direct fire has prevailed since early April following a US ceasefire proposal and Israel-Hezbollah truce, yet Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders warned on April 18 of unleashing newly produced missiles and drones against US forces, Israel, or Gulf oil infrastructure if escalation resumes. US officials countered with threats of renewed airstrikes amid the partial Strait of Hormuz blockade, where Iran has vowed retaliation against shipping. Proxy barrages via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, with diplomatic deadlines and potential tanker attacks by April 30 poised to drive outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$483,182
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war ignited by February 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, a fragile lull in direct fire has prevailed since early April following a US ceasefire proposal and Israel-Hezbollah truce, yet Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders warned on April 18 of unleashing newly produced missiles and drones against US forces, Israel, or Gulf oil infrastructure if escalation resumes. US officials countered with threats of renewed airstrikes amid the partial Strait of Hormuz blockade, where Iran has vowed retaliation against shipping. Proxy barrages via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, with diplomatic deadlines and potential tanker attacks by April 30 poised to drive outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$483,182
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 14 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mina Al-Ahmadi Raffinerie" mit 100%, gefolgt von „Ost-West-Pipeline" mit 100%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $483.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 23, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 14 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?" ist „Mina Al-Ahmadi Raffinerie" mit 100%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Ost-West-Pipeline" mit 100%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.