Intense cross-border fighting persists between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israeli ground forces deepening their incursion into southern Lebanon since early October to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure and secure the border, following the September 27 airstrike that killed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah has retaliated with near-daily rocket barrages into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands on both sides. Diplomatic efforts led by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, alongside Qatar and France, propose a ceasefire framework including Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River and Israeli pullback, but preconditions remain unresolved amid links to the Gaza conflict. No agreement is imminent, with UN Security Council discussions ongoing but unlikely to compel de-escalation soon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIsrael x Waffenruhe der Hisbollah bis...?
Israel x Waffenruhe der Hisbollah bis...?
$334,033 Vol.

31. März
4%

30. Juni
43%

30. April
27%
$334,033 Vol.

31. März
4%

30. Juni
43%

30. April
27%
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Intense cross-border fighting persists between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israeli ground forces deepening their incursion into southern Lebanon since early October to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure and secure the border, following the September 27 airstrike that killed longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah has retaliated with near-daily rocket barrages into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands on both sides. Diplomatic efforts led by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, alongside Qatar and France, propose a ceasefire framework including Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River and Israeli pullback, but preconditions remain unresolved amid links to the Gaza conflict. No agreement is imminent, with UN Security Council discussions ongoing but unlikely to compel de-escalation soon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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