Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 59.5% implied probability to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Celeste Maloy's strong 2023 special election victory by nearly 20 points and her fundraising advantage—over $1.1 million raised versus Democrat Morgan Jenkins' $250,000. This battleground race in a district with Democratic-leaning PVI (D+3) has seen limited polling, but forecasts like 538 give Maloy a clear edge amid national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past week, though early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 election; Jenkins focuses on local issues like housing affordability to close the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUT-02 Wahlsieger
UT-02 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
16%
Republikanische Partei
59%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
16%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 59.5% implied probability to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Celeste Maloy's strong 2023 special election victory by nearly 20 points and her fundraising advantage—over $1.1 million raised versus Democrat Morgan Jenkins' $250,000. This battleground race in a district with Democratic-leaning PVI (D+3) has seen limited polling, but forecasts like 538 give Maloy a clear edge amid national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past week, though early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 election; Jenkins focuses on local issues like housing affordability to close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 59.5% implied probability to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Celeste Maloy's strong 2023 special election victory by nearly 20 points and her fundraising advantage—over $1.1 million raised versus Democrat Morgan Jenkins' $250,000. This battleground race in a district with Democratic-leaning PVI (D+3) has seen limited polling, but forecasts like 538 give Maloy a clear edge amid national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past week, though early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 election; Jenkins focuses on local issues like housing affordability to close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 59.5% implied probability to win Utah's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Celeste Maloy's strong 2023 special election victory by nearly 20 points and her fundraising advantage—over $1.1 million raised versus Democrat Morgan Jenkins' $250,000. This battleground race in a district with Democratic-leaning PVI (D+3) has seen limited polling, but forecasts like 538 give Maloy a clear edge amid national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past week, though early voting is underway ahead of the November 5 election; Jenkins focuses on local issues like housing affordability to close the gap.
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