Congressional leaders from both parties have repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of binding constraints, most recently increasing it to $41.1 trillion in 2025, and current projections place the next potential breach in early-to-mid 2027 with extraordinary measures available to extend flexibility further. Republicans are actively discussing a preemptive increase during the lame-duck session after the 2026 midterms to avoid leverage disputes, consistent with nearly 80 prior adjustments since 1960 that prevented any actual default. Traders assign 98% probability to "No" because these procedural tools, Senate vote thresholds, and institutional incentives have consistently produced timely resolutions despite partisan tensions. Late-session gridlock or unforeseen fiscal shocks remain the primary variables that could still alter timelines.