The Trump administration’s recent actions have reinforced a policy of intensified pressure on Cuba rather than any easing of oil-related sanctions. Executive orders issued since January 2026 declared a national emergency and authorized tariffs on countries supplying petroleum to Havana, followed by expanded secondary sanctions in May targeting entities in Cuba’s energy sector. Most recently, on June 11, sanctions were imposed directly on Cuba’s state-owned oil company, Unión Cuba-Petróleo, amid ongoing efforts to restrict shipments and push for political change. With no official statements or diplomatic signals indicating imminent relief by the end of June, trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for “No” aligns with the absence of any policy reversal in the narrow remaining window.