Trader consensus prices 59-60% turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election at 50% implied probability, reflecting historical averages near 60%—69% in 2021's polarized contest versus 57% in 2017—amid stable voter registration topping 5.4 million per the National Electoral Council. Supporting 58-59% at 22% are concerns over voter apathy fueled by economic woes, gang violence, and corruption scandals eroding enthusiasm post-Castro administration. Lower brackets like under 56% at 15% gain from reports of registration irregularities and youth disengagement, while no surge catalysts have boosted higher ranges. Primaries concluded without major shifts, with campaigning now underway ahead of November 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWahlbeteiligung bei den honduranischen Parlamentswahlen 2025 (kleinere Klammern)
Wahlbeteiligung bei den honduranischen Parlamentswahlen 2025 (kleinere Klammern)
59-60% 50.0%
58–59 % 18.8%
<56 % 15.0%
61-62 % 7.7%
$22,542 Vol.
$22,542 Vol.
<56 %
15%
56-57 %
3%
57-58 %
4%
58–59 %
23%
59-60%
50%
60-61 %
8%
61-62 %
7%
>62 %
3%
59-60% 50.0%
58–59 % 18.8%
<56 % 15.0%
61-62 % 7.7%
$22,542 Vol.
$22,542 Vol.
<56 %
15%
56-57 %
3%
57-58 %
4%
58–59 %
23%
59-60%
50%
60-61 %
8%
61-62 %
7%
>62 %
3%
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 11, 2025, 2:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices 59-60% turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election at 50% implied probability, reflecting historical averages near 60%—69% in 2021's polarized contest versus 57% in 2017—amid stable voter registration topping 5.4 million per the National Electoral Council. Supporting 58-59% at 22% are concerns over voter apathy fueled by economic woes, gang violence, and corruption scandals eroding enthusiasm post-Castro administration. Lower brackets like under 56% at 15% gain from reports of registration irregularities and youth disengagement, while no surge catalysts have boosted higher ranges. Primaries concluded without major shifts, with campaigning now underway ahead of November 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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