The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit denied the CFTC's petition for rehearing en banc on October 9 in its challenge to Kalshi's event contracts, including those on sports outcomes like congressional control and gaming events, ruling the agency's ban arbitrary and capricious. This clears the path for CFTC to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari within 90 days, potentially by early January 2025, with SCOTUS typically deciding on such petitions during its weekly conference schedule. Traders are monitoring CFTC statements and filings for signals of intent to escalate, alongside any amicus briefs from prediction market platforms; historical SCOTUS grant rates for circuit splits on agency authority hover around 20-30%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSCOTUS akzeptiert Sportveranstaltungsvertragsfall bis zum...?
SCOTUS akzeptiert Sportveranstaltungsvertragsfall bis zum...?
$924,694 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
31. Juli
15%
31. Dezember
60%
$924,694 Vol.
31. Juli
$924,694 Vol.
15%
31. Dezember
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit denied the CFTC's petition for rehearing en banc on October 9 in its challenge to Kalshi's event contracts, including those on sports outcomes like congressional control and gaming events, ruling the agency's ban arbitrary and capricious. This clears the path for CFTC to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari within 90 days, potentially by early January 2025, with SCOTUS typically deciding on such petitions during its weekly conference schedule. Traders are monitoring CFTC statements and filings for signals of intent to escalate, alongside any amicus briefs from prediction market platforms; historical SCOTUS grant rates for circuit splits on agency authority hover around 20-30%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ET
Volumen
$924,694Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit denied the CFTC's petition for rehearing en banc on October 9 in its challenge to Kalshi's event contracts, including those on sports outcomes like congressional control and gaming events, ruling the agency's ban arbitrary and capricious. This clears the path for CFTC to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari within 90 days, potentially by early January 2025, with SCOTUS typically deciding on such petitions during its weekly conference schedule. Traders are monitoring CFTC statements and filings for signals of intent to escalate, alongside any amicus briefs from prediction market platforms; historical SCOTUS grant rates for circuit splits on agency authority hover around 20-30%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Volumen
$924,694Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit denied the CFTC's petition for rehearing en banc on October 9 in its challenge to Kalshi's event contracts, including those on sports outcomes like congressional control and gaming events, ruling the agency's ban arbitrary and capricious. This clears the path for CFTC to petition the Supreme Court for certiorari within 90 days, potentially by early January 2025, with SCOTUS typically deciding on such petitions during its weekly conference schedule. Traders are monitoring CFTC statements and filings for signals of intent to escalate, alongside any amicus briefs from prediction market platforms; historical SCOTUS grant rates for circuit splits on agency authority hover around 20-30%, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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