**Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt holds a clear edge in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District race, with traders assigning her a 69.5% implied probability compared to 30.5% for Democrat Nancy Lacore.** The open seat, vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, sits in a coastal district redrawn in 2021 to favor Republicans and consistently delivered double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Honeycutt, a Charleston County councilwoman and local attorney, benefits from deep Lowcountry roots, strong primary performance, and outside support from Trump-aligned groups. Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral removed from her post in 2025, has drawn national Democratic investment—including a DCCC “Red to Blue” designation and pledged super PAC spending—to leverage her military background and appeal to moderates on issues like the economy and inflation. Recent developments, such as the October 7 debate and GOP ad investments, have reinforced the Republican advantage ahead of early voting beginning October 19 and the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, consistent with the current market pricing.