With Peru's presidential first-round election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Rafael López Aliaga at 32.5% implied probability in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, reflecting recent polls where he edges or ties Keiko Fujimori (20% on market), both right-wing frontrunners appealing to voters weary of post-2021 instability. Late March surveys from Ipsos, Datum, and Law Peru show López Aliaga at 17-22% versus Fujimori's 12-19%, boosted by his anti-corruption rhetoric and businessman profile differentiating him from Fujimori's established Fuerza Popular machine and Carlos Álvarez's (15.3%) conservative surge. Undecided voters (30-40%) and yesterday's final televised debate could consolidate right-wing support, averting a surprise runoff qualifier amid no candidate polling above 25%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl in Peru
Gewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl in Peru
Rafael López Aliaga 33%
Keiko Fujimori 20%
Carlos Álvarez 15.3%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.9%
$4,891,928 Vol.
$4,891,928 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga
33%

Keiko Fujimori
20%

Carlos Álvarez
15%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
9%

Alfonso López Chau
9%

Jorge Nieto
6%

Ricardo Belmont
3%

Marisol Pérez Tello
1%

Carlos Espá
1%

Wolfgang Grozo
1%

Mesías Guevara
1%

Yonhy Lescano
1%

George Forsyth
<1%

César Acuña
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

José Luna
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 33%
Keiko Fujimori 20%
Carlos Álvarez 15.3%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 8.9%
$4,891,928 Vol.
$4,891,928 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga
33%

Keiko Fujimori
20%

Carlos Álvarez
15%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
9%

Alfonso López Chau
9%

Jorge Nieto
6%

Ricardo Belmont
3%

Marisol Pérez Tello
1%

Carlos Espá
1%

Wolfgang Grozo
1%

Mesías Guevara
1%

Yonhy Lescano
1%

George Forsyth
<1%

César Acuña
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

José Luna
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Peru's presidential first-round election set for April 12, trader consensus favors Rafael López Aliaga at 32.5% implied probability in a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, reflecting recent polls where he edges or ties Keiko Fujimori (20% on market), both right-wing frontrunners appealing to voters weary of post-2021 instability. Late March surveys from Ipsos, Datum, and Law Peru show López Aliaga at 17-22% versus Fujimori's 12-19%, boosted by his anti-corruption rhetoric and businessman profile differentiating him from Fujimori's established Fuerza Popular machine and Carlos Álvarez's (15.3%) conservative surge. Undecided voters (30-40%) and yesterday's final televised debate could consolidate right-wing support, averting a surprise runoff qualifier amid no candidate polling above 25%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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