Trader consensus favors comedian Carlos Álvarez at 30% implied probability to win Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote or subsequent runoff, propelled by his post-debate surge in the latest Ipsos poll to 19%—up from 14% in early March—via viral impersonations and outsider appeal amid voter fatigue with corruption, crime, and instability. Keiko Fujimori slipped to 11% despite prior leads and experience, while Rafael López Aliaga (18%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (16%) hold as conservative and progressive alternatives in a fragmented 35-candidate field with 17% undecideds. Regional turnout divides—Sánchez strong in south, right-wingers in Lima—keeping the race tight; final endorsements, scandals, or mobilization could propel a frontrunner to runoff dominance by June 7.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl in Peru
Gewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl in Peru
Carlos Álvarez 29.8%
Keiko Fujimori 23%
Rafael López Aliaga 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.4%
$6,064,742 Vol.
$6,064,742 Vol.

Carlos Álvarez
30%

Keiko Fujimori
23%

Rafael López Aliaga
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
16%

Ricardo Belmont
5%

Alfonso López Chau
3%

Jorge Nieto
3%

Carlos Espá
1%

Marisol Pérez Tello
1%

César Acuña
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Wolfgang Grozo
<1%

Yonhy Lescano
<1%

Mesías Guevara
<1%

George Forsyth
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

José Luna
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Carlos Álvarez 29.8%
Keiko Fujimori 23%
Rafael López Aliaga 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 16.4%
$6,064,742 Vol.
$6,064,742 Vol.

Carlos Álvarez
30%

Keiko Fujimori
23%

Rafael López Aliaga
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
16%

Ricardo Belmont
5%

Alfonso López Chau
3%

Jorge Nieto
3%

Carlos Espá
1%

Marisol Pérez Tello
1%

César Acuña
<1%

Fernando Olivera
<1%

Wolfgang Grozo
<1%

Yonhy Lescano
<1%

Mesías Guevara
<1%

George Forsyth
<1%

Vladimir Cerrón
<1%

Roberto Chiabra
<1%

Enrique Valderrama
<1%

Mario Vizcarra
<1%

José Luna
<1%

José Williams
<1%

Fiorella Molinelli
<1%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors comedian Carlos Álvarez at 30% implied probability to win Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote or subsequent runoff, propelled by his post-debate surge in the latest Ipsos poll to 19%—up from 14% in early March—via viral impersonations and outsider appeal amid voter fatigue with corruption, crime, and instability. Keiko Fujimori slipped to 11% despite prior leads and experience, while Rafael López Aliaga (18%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (16%) hold as conservative and progressive alternatives in a fragmented 35-candidate field with 17% undecideds. Regional turnout divides—Sánchez strong in south, right-wingers in Lima—keeping the race tight; final endorsements, scandals, or mobilization could propel a frontrunner to runoff dominance by June 7.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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