Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 57% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established name recognition as a former eight-year Ohio House representative, Waterville mayor, and prior challenger to Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur in the redrawn, more Republican-leaning district. Recent momentum has boosted state Rep. Josh Williams to 15%, highlighted by his surge in a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, where support jumped from 109 to 155 votes post-forum amid his top Q4 fundraising. Madison Sheahan holds 17.5% on her high-profile ex-ICE deputy director resume but faces local residency scrutiny after Lucas County GOP imposed new endorsement rules in late January. With no public polls, odds reflect fundraising, endorsements, and pre-primary dynamics in this crowded field.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDerek Merrin 57%
Madison Sheahan 18%
Josh Williams 15.0%
Alea Nadeem 7.6%
Derek Merrin
57%
Madison Sheahan
18%
Josh Williams
15%
Alea Nadeem
8%
Wayne Kinsel
8%
Anthony Campbell
1%
Jacob Frost
<1%
Derek Merrin 57%
Madison Sheahan 18%
Josh Williams 15.0%
Alea Nadeem 7.6%
Derek Merrin
57%
Madison Sheahan
18%
Josh Williams
15%
Alea Nadeem
8%
Wayne Kinsel
8%
Anthony Campbell
1%
Jacob Frost
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 57% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, driven by his established name recognition as a former eight-year Ohio House representative, Waterville mayor, and prior challenger to Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur in the redrawn, more Republican-leaning district. Recent momentum has boosted state Rep. Josh Williams to 15%, highlighted by his surge in a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, where support jumped from 109 to 155 votes post-forum amid his top Q4 fundraising. Madison Sheahan holds 17.5% on her high-profile ex-ICE deputy director resume but faces local residency scrutiny after Lucas County GOP imposed new endorsement rules in late January. With no public polls, odds reflect fundraising, endorsements, and pre-primary dynamics in this crowded field.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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