Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 62.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, reflecting his name recognition from the 2024 general election challenge to incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, prior state House service, and local Waterville mayoral experience under the new post-redistricting map. Madison Sheahan trails at 15% amid Lucas County GOP residency requirement disputes following her January entry as former ICE deputy director, while state Rep. Josh Williams holds 14.8% despite a March 29 Right to Life forum straw poll surge but faces headwinds from explicit Facebook posts resurfacing April 2 and frontrunners' debate refusals. Voter registration closes April 6, with turnout key in this crowded field.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDerek Merrin 59%
Madison Sheahan 16%
Josh Williams 11.4%
Alea Nadeem 6.6%
Derek Merrin
59%
Madison Sheahan
16%
Josh Williams
16%
Alea Nadeem
7%
Wayne Kinsel
7%
Anthony Campbell
1%
Jacob Frost
<1%
Derek Merrin 59%
Madison Sheahan 16%
Josh Williams 11.4%
Alea Nadeem 6.6%
Derek Merrin
59%
Madison Sheahan
16%
Josh Williams
16%
Alea Nadeem
7%
Wayne Kinsel
7%
Anthony Campbell
1%
Jacob Frost
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Derek Merrin at 62.5% implied probability to win the OH-09 Republican primary on May 5, reflecting his name recognition from the 2024 general election challenge to incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, prior state House service, and local Waterville mayoral experience under the new post-redistricting map. Madison Sheahan trails at 15% amid Lucas County GOP residency requirement disputes following her January entry as former ICE deputy director, while state Rep. Josh Williams holds 14.8% despite a March 29 Right to Life forum straw poll surge but faces headwinds from explicit Facebook posts resurfacing April 2 and frontrunners' debate refusals. Voter registration closes April 6, with turnout key in this crowded field.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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